The Coin Flip Division Races Have Broken Our Brains

When making preseason NFL predictions, we tend to go off of what we absolutely are 100% positive that we know in our hearts are true, and occasionally we can mulligan by throwing in a few bold or hot takes so that we aren’t ENTIRELY influenced by groupthink.

Some of those things we’re certain of: quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen are elite quarterbacks. The South divisions are usually a one-horse race. Sean McVay will have a team that overplays their expectations. The Eagles are going to be dominant, and we say, “Howie Roseman has done it again!”

No one likes to be the negative individual who predicts a major injury, so we go off of what we know. The other predictions? You’re on your own essentially in terms of how much you want to believe it.

Some of those certainties when it comes to the actual winning and standings are proving to actually be false thus far in the year. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, are on the outside looking in on the playoffs. Josh Allen and the Bills are no longer leading the AFC East. McVay and the Rams are neck-and-neck with Seattle for the top of the division. It’s breaking our brains, and we don’t know whether or not to believe it at this point in the season now that we’re midway through, and the “It’s still early!” moniker can no longer be used as a valid excuse.

Let’s check in on some of the divisions that are up for grabs and determine whether or not we believe that this outcome is actually going to mean anything.

Meaningless // AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers, believe it or not, are the leaders of the AFC North at 5-4, with the Ravens just behind them at 4-5. Does the Ravens’ record under .500 matter at all going forward? Absolutely not. Baltimore JUST NOW had its first practice of the year, where everyone was healthy. Lamar Jackson is back, and those underperforming early-season losses came against the Bills, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, and Rams, formidable opponents. They’ve since won 3 in a row and have a light schedule going forward with the Jets and divisional games on deck. Lamar looked agile and back as ever.

The Steelers, meanwhile, put up a 3-point dud in which Aaron Rodgers looked like the worst quarterback in the league in primetime against the Chargers, and have to play the Bills and Lions. The North is trending Baltimore after all.

Significant but Probably Meaningless // AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs and the empire they’ve created ever since handing Patrick Mahomes a football are in 3rd place in the West at 5-4 behind the 8-2 Broncos and the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers. They’d currently be the 8th seed right behind the Jaguars, therefore missing the playoffs.

It’s significant in that the Broncos and Chargers have both been winning consistently enough that it feels like both have played well enough to not only each get a playoff spot at the minimum, but take the AFC West for the first time in the Mahomes era. Does it ACTUALLY mean anything though? Probably not whenever we get to January. The Chiefs still have a 65% chance to make the postseason (the Jaguars have 40% and are a dead man walking after Sunday), and when it comes down to it, the Chiefs have saved their creative play calls for the games and defensive schemes for whenever it counts by having the history and the pedigree. Would you actually pick the Chiefs in an AFC Championship game against Bo Nix after they just won a game 7-10 against the Raiders? You’re going to fear the Chiefs until they’re not playing in the big dance.

Significant // AFC East

A groupthink take heading into this year was that the Bills would run away with the AFC East. The Patriots have a second-year starting quarterback, a first-year head coach, and are following a season where they won 4 games. The Jets have historically been the Jets and have another new coach and quarterback. The Dolphins were the bad vibes team of the offseason.

And here we are, and the Patriots are 8-2, the Bills are 6-3, and it feels a bit different this time.

You still wouldn’t want to bet against Josh Allen in the same way that you wouldn’t want to bet against Mahomes. The shortcomings against Kansas City have made the season-long evaluation of Buffalo a bit of a write-off because they could beat the Chiefs in the regular season impressively, just like they did last week. We’d do the “well, let’s wait and see in January” crutch.

Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The reality of Buffalo’s situation is that they’ve lost 3 games in which they probably should have won, this time a 30-13 shocker to a Miami team that’s done for, and there’s only so many holes that Josh Allen can cover up on a leaky boat with holes in it. They made no aggressive moves at the deadline for either defense or skill position weapons for Josh, and it’s showing. How much Allen can take them remains to be seen, but now they have a division opponent to keep pace with them in New England.

The worst thing to happen to the Bills was that it finally looks like they have a worthy division opponent during this window in the Patriots. New England in year two of Drake Maye, he’s top 5 in QBR, the defense has entirely turned it around under Vrabel, and they’re top 10, and they have the most cap room to work with going forward after nailing their draft class. And they get to play the Jets twice and the Giants!

Will any of this matter come January? Probably not, given that football is all about getting healthy and hot at the right time.

It’s just that our brains can’t fathom the ideas of names like Bo Nix, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, or old yeller Aaron Rodgers winning a division and being a team to bank on until we see the confetti. That’s dumb sports brain for you.