September Is a Liar: College Football’s First Week Already Broke the Preseason Narrative Machine

College football needed approximately one Saturday to remind everyone why making confident predictions in August is such an entertaining way to embarrass yourself.

We spent the summer building rankings; we ranked quarterbacks; we ranked coaches; we ranked conferences.

We ranked teams that had not played a football game yet, which is a wonderfully efficient way to convert speculation into a number beside a school’s logo.

Then Week 1 happened.

• Michigan won and got thrown out of the Top 25.
• Oregon won and dropped four spots.
• LSU obliterated Clemson and jumped into the top 10.
• Three FCS teams beat FBS opponents in one day.
• And now No. 1 Ohio State is headed to Texas for a top-five game that could cause another complete rewrite by Sunday afternoon.

Welcome back!

We Were Warned About the Preseason Poll

Before the season began, Wegryn Enterprises looked at the first preseason rankings and summarized the entire exercise rather nicely:

“It’s beautiful. It’s nonsensical.” Hard to improve on that.

Wegryn’s preseason piece, Who Are the 2026 Versions of 2025 Preseason College Football Teams Going to Be?, examined how quickly expectations can turn into comedy once actual football intervenes.

One week into the season, the experiment is proceeding beautifully.

The latest Associated Press Top 25 had 24 of its 25 ranked teams win their previous game.

Sounds stable. It wasn’t.

Michigan became the first team since at least 2008 to fall completely out of the AP Top 25 after entering a week ranked as high as No. 16 and winning.

College football has apparently discovered relegation for ugly victories. 

Michigan Won. Everyone Hated It.

To understand how little the final result can tell us, look at Michigan.

The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12. Technically.

Michigan needed officials to restore one second to the clock after its first unsuccessful Hail Mary. Bryce Underwood then found JJ Buchanan for a 47-yard touchdown on the second attempt.

The Big House stormed the field. And then everybody presumably checked the box score and became considerably less enthusiastic.

Michigan committed three turnovers without forcing one and allowed Western Michigan to possess the ball for more than two-thirds of the game. 

New Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham didn’t bother pretending otherwise.

Asked whether the game unfolded as designed, he answered:

“Absolutely not. Yeah, but we found a way.”

Whittingham went on to say Michigan had numerous deficiencies to correct and called escaping with the victory “nothing short of a miracle.” 

That is refreshingly different from the usual coach-speak in which everybody “showed resilience” shortly after spending three hours setting football back 11 years.

Michigan won. The voters nevertheless concluded Michigan looked substantially worse than they thought it would. Both things can be true.

Oregon Discovered That Winning Isn’t Enough Either

Oregon had a slightly less dramatic version of the same experience. The Ducks entered the season ranked No. 2 and beat Boise State 34-27.

Result: victory. Reward: drop to No. 6.

Oregon had been favored by 25.5 points, according to the AP, but trailed Boise State by 10 before rallying. Again, the scoreboard said Oregon won. The performance said something more complicated.

This is one reason early-season college football can be so misleading. Teams are being evaluated simultaneously on two entirely different questions:

Did you win? and Did you look as good as we expected you to look?

Sometimes the second question matters more than the first.

At least until the playoff committee gets involved and invents six additional questions.

LSU Had the Opposite Problem

LSU left little room for debate. The Tigers opened the Lane Kiffin era by beating Clemson 51-10.

LSU produced 644 yards of total offense, with quarterback Sam Leavitt finishing with 230 passing yards and another 113 on the ground. Dilin Jones also rushed for 113 yards. The result moved LSU from No. 11 to No. 8.

That’s the sort of Week 1 performance that turns cautious preseason optimism into:

Are we sure LSU isn’t winning the national championship?

Give it another Saturday, and somebody will have them building the statue.

The AP also supplied a useful reminder about how dangerous this can be. LSU climbed as high as No. 4 after beginning last season 4-0. Then the Tigers went 3-6 the rest of the way. 

September confidence is cheap. November receipts are considerably more expensive.

And the Little Guys Have Already Started Throwing Furniture

Perhaps the funniest Week 1 statistic came farther down the food chain.

According to NCAA.com, three FCS teams beat FBS opponents in one day.

• Tarleton State beat Bowling Green 20-13
• The Citadel defeated Charlotte 43-41 in triple overtime
• And another FCS upset joined them before the weekend was finished

Only four FCS-over-FBS victories occurred during the entire 2025 season. Three arrived in a single Saturday this year. 

This is college football’s annual reminder that the logo on the helmet does not tackle anybody.

It also demonstrates why Wegryn’s broader approach to college football works so well. Their College GameDay schedule breakdown leaned into the possibility that supposedly massive preseason matchups could lose their significance while overlooked games suddenly become appointment viewing.

One weekend in, we’re already editing the script.

The Bettor Has an Extra Problem

Sports fans can respond to all this chaos emotionally. Bettors eventually have to attach a price to it. That’s where Week 1 overreaction gets dangerous.

Did LSU’s 51-10 win reveal that the Tigers were dramatically underrated?

Maybe. Or did that performance immediately cause the market to make LSU more expensive? Also maybe.

Did Oregon’s struggle with Boise State reveal weakness? Perhaps.

But if everybody spends the week downgrading Oregon, there eventually comes a number where the pessimism itself becomes excessive.

This distinction is part of the broader sports-betting discussion at Bookmakers Review. Bookmakers Review BMR covers betting news, sportsbook and industry developments, sports stories and bettor discussion—not simply which team someone believes will win on Saturday.

That matters because sports betting is full of situations where a correct football opinion can still produce a lousy wager.

The question isn’t only: Who is better? It is: What does the market currently think they’re worth?

Those aren’t always the same thing.

Now Ohio State and Texas Get to Break Something

This weekend gives us a beautiful laboratory. No. 1 Ohio State goes to No. 4 Texas.

Ohio State destroyed Ball State 56-3 in Week 1, outgaining the Cardinals 671-165. Quarterback Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith had 151 receiving yards and two touchdowns before halftime. 

The Buckeyes also received 46 of the AP poll’s 69 first-place votes this week. Texas received two. 

What happens if Texas wins? The rankings move. The national-title conversation moves. Heisman narratives move.

The interpretation of Ohio State’s Week 1 destruction moves.

And approximately 9,000 television segments beginning with “What does this mean for Ryan Day?” materialize before breakfast. If Ohio State wins convincingly, we’ll perform the exact same ritual in the opposite direction.

By Sunday, somebody will be unbeatable. Somebody will be exposed. Somebody will be overrated. And we will have played two games.

That’s Why September Is So Much Fun

None of this means early-season games don’t matter. They matter enormously.

Real information is replacing projection. We learn which offensive lines can block. Which quarterbacks can handle pressure. Which transfers actually fit. Which new coaches know what they’re doing. Which preseason darling might have been assembled mostly from optimism and a good media guide.

The mistake is believing one Saturday completes the evaluation.

Michigan may genuinely have serious problems. Oregon may still become one of the best teams in the country. LSU may be exactly as frightening as it looked against Clemson. And one of them may make this entire paragraph look ridiculous by Halloween.

That’s the deal.

College football doesn’t reveal itself all at once. It spends four months changing the answer. So enjoy the rankings. Argue about them. Complain about them. Use them to determine whether your brother-in-law has any idea what he’s talking about.

Just remember what Week 1 has already demonstrated:

The number beside the school name is an opinion.

Saturday gets another vote.