There is the game within the game, which is the future’s market – this week, it is player props.
Always a little more fun to pick one player, whether he is on your fantasy team or not, to exceed expectations in either receiving/ rushing yards.
Remember, in this NFL season, there are 17 regular season games compared to 16.
So, without further ado, here are my four favorite NFL Player Props Bets for the 2021 Season
Odds via FanDuel
1) Jalen Hurts Over 3750.5 Passing Yards
Photo: —Hurts has a limited amount of starts in his 2020 rookie season. Yet in the 3 games where he started and finished the game, he averaged an impressive 282.33 passing yards per game. For Hurts to reach this mark, he would have to average 220.6 passing yards per game. Also, account for that when Jalen Hurts started, he had no Lane Johnson or Brandon Brooks, so a healthier O-line should also help.
Then we have the upgraded weapons situation as well with their 1st round selection of Devonta Smith. Combining all these factors for a team with the least projected wins in their division will be behind in a lot of games. Hurts should use his arm enough to get over this pretty low number.
2) Lamar Jackson Over 900.5 Rushing Yards
At first glance, this number seemed really low to me, but then I realized that the Ravens attempted in the offseason to improve their receiving core by signing Sammy Watkins and drafting Rashod Bateman from Minnesota. Yet there is a famous saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” That would be Lamar Jackson and his amazing ability to run the football.
In his 2 full seasons as a starter, Lamar has gone for 1,206yds in 2019 and 1,005 yds in 2020. Both times he achieved this number by only playing in 15 games. As mentioned before, there are 17 games in the regular season this year, and with a very competitive division like the AFC North, I see no reason why Lamar wouldn’t play in all 17 games this season.
If he does, he would have to average 53 rushing yards per game for the Ravens last led the NFL in rushing yards per game with 191yds/game. I think he could easily do that. Plus, the season-ending injury to J.K Dobbins helps his chances.
3) Julio Jones Over 985.5 Receiving Yards
Photo: —I know I said that the Jackson rushing prop bet looked low to me, but this one has to be a trap. Vegas project Julio Jones under 1,000 receiving yards!?!?!?! Yes, last season Julio finished with 771 receiving yards. This was the first time Jone’s had below 1,000 receiving yards since 2013 and only the 3rd time in his career. Jones also only played in 9 games last season.
In a new 17 game season, even if Jones only played in 14 of them, he should reach the 1,000-yard mark. I expect this Titan offense to move the ball down the field a lot with their trifecta of AJ Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry. Even if Jones is considered the WR2 in terms of targets next to Brown. Last year’s number 2 receiver for the Titans, Corey Davis, had 984 receiving yards.
I think Jones can do better than Corey Davis by 2 yards.
4) Najee Harris Over 1000.5 Rushing Yards (Greene’s Guarantee)
In today’s NFL, you have to be a special talent as a running back to be selected in the 1st round. Najee Harris is exactly that. The Pittsburgh Steelers were last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging an atrocious 84.4yds/game. To put that in perspective, the 2nd lowest team was the Texans, and they average 91yds/game.
New offensive coordinator Matt Canada clearly has a vision in mind with his rookie, and that is to pound the football. Now I see where there are some concerns.
The Steelers had to replace 3 of their starting offensive lineman from last season. Yet the biggest factor to me is in the final third of the 2020 season; Ben Rothlisberger hit the cliff. His arm looked weak, and his mobility in the pocket was a step slow.
A fresh new running back in the building with the horsepower that Harris has that can take the pressure off Ben and can/will revitalize an offense that was very lackluster to end the 2020 season. Lock it in!
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