Welcome to Week 2 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season!
I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under of the total.
Then, I will give my 3 best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene’s Guarantee of the week.
So without further ado, let’s get into it!
Best Bets for Week 2
Best Bet Record: 1-2
Not going to lie; we have gotten off to a little bit of a rough start in 2021 with my best bets. While I successfully called the 49ers covering the 7.5 spread, the game closed at 9.5 and only ended up winning by 8—a win for myself and a bad beat for others.
Yet, I can’t get into this week’s best bets without expressing how disappointed I am at last week’s “guarantee” The New York Giants. The Football Team did what I thought they would do. They only gave up 20 points and forced multiple turnovers against a high-powered Chargers offense—credit to the Chargers for winning a close game for once. They had 4 trips to the red zone and came away with 0 points on 3 of them.
I can admit Teddy Bridgewater played a lot better than I expected, but watching the Giants just beat themselves over and over again was highly frustrating. Nonetheless, we must move, so here are my 3 best bets for week 2.
1) Atlanta Falcons (+12.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know what you are thinking; why in the world would I bet the Falcons to cover against the defending Superbowl champions when they couldn’t even score 10 points vs. an Eagles team that was projected last in the NFC East. Because this is what the Falcons do if you expect them to win, they will lose, and if you expect them to get blown out, they will cover. It’s just the Falcons way. I’m going to give the Falcons a slight pass for that awful weak one performance, New Head Coach, which comes with a whole new offensive system, so there were many wrinkles to air out.
Some betting trends for this game: Bruce Arians are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his coaching career, Atlanta has covered seven of its last eight games as a double-digit underdog. All six of the meetings between these teams since the start of the 2018 season have gone over the total. Division games are always closer than they should be, and I expect the Falcons to put up a much better fight than last week. Take the Bucs to win, but the Falcons get the cover.
Buccaneers 30 Falcons 24
2) Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Usually, in week 1, I don’t tend to overreact too much from a team’s week 1 performance. Neither does Vegas, which is why the spread for this game is so low, and it shouldn’t be. Maybe it’s a trap, but a Cardinals team that demolished a playoff team, in my opinion, in the Tennessee Titans, while the Vikings lost to the Cincinnati Bengals that I thought at the beginning of the year wouldn’t even get 5 wins. We are going to find out this week which storyline was legit and which was an overreaction.
The Vikings haven’t been the same since the Minnesota Miracle; yes, they have made the playoffs a couple of times since then, but there has always been this doubt from the fanbase and organization on Kirk Cousins. I think this is the year they finally have a down year and have enough with Cousins mediocrity. On the other hand, Kyler Murray seems to have taken the next step, and it seems his team has as well. Chandler Jones had 5 sacks against an elite LT in Taylor Lewan. This team has playmakers on both sides of the ball, and they are ready to take the next step even in a tough division.
Kirk Cousins is 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since becoming the Vikings’ starting QB. Minnesota is 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the worst cover percentage in the NFL. I see no reason why the Cardinal will take their foot off the gas this week as they know every week will matter in a tough NFC West; Cardinals blow the Vikings out
Cardinals 34 Vikings 23
3) Chicago Bears (-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Greene’s Guarantee)
Rough start to the year on my guarantees as the Giants decided not to show up on Sunday. I will never get too upset about a loss, but it bugs me when it misses, and it’s by simple mistakes. I know Daniel Jones had a huge fumbling issue but to see it happen again with money on the line is sickening. Nonetheless, we move on.
This week I’m betting my money on another QB that was never trusted, Andy Dalton.
Here’s a stat for you, Cincinnati has won just one of its last 16 road games straight up (1-14-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) since the start of the 2019 season. 1 win. Yes, ATS they are 8-8, but with a line of -2, if the Bengals lose by 1 point, then I shake my head and say I was beaten today. The Bengals in Sunday overtime win vs. the Vikings went 3/14 on 3rd down and allowed five sacks.
This week you are facing a much better defense/pass rush, and it’s the Bear’s first home game of the season, and they can’t afford to go 0-2. This bet is simply I can’t see the Bengals starting the season 2-0. Take the better defense at home with Andy Dalton’s career on the line as well. I guarantee it.
Bears 26 Bengals 17
Featured Image: USA Today