NFL Week 4 best bets: Intriguing lines for three big games - Los Angeles  Times

Welcome to week 3 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)

Best Bets for Week 4 

Best bet record this year: 3-6

I told you last week that I was not too fond of the board, and my performance reflected that, going my year’s worst 6-10 ATS and 1-2 on my best bets. The Patriots got Patriot’d. Not many times in the Belichick era where they have a punt blocked and two ints that should have been pick-sixes go against them. The Football team is the first team of the year to join the banned list for the best bets. Now 0-2 on the season when I have them on the board. They got hammered by the better team, but I and many others expected a much better performance from their defense. The only good news from last week’s picks is that once again, we struck gold on my Greene’s Guarantee of the week with the Rams winning the NFL game of the week vs. the Buccaneers, ending their ten-game win streak. Now 2-1 on guarantees for the season. As long as those picks are above .500 I am slightly happy with my performance. Time to get the ball rolling as we enter week 4 of the NFL season. So, let us get into my best bets.

1.Seahawks (+3) @ 49ers

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I’m just going to say it. The San Francisco 49ers are frauds. They were given every call/opportunity to win that football game vs. the Packers, and that baaaad man Aaron Rodgers did something about it. Yet, even before that game, I wasn’t impressed with their first two performances. They have defeated two teams with a combined 1-5 record, and I still think they aren’t convinced who should be starting at QB. This is also a must-win for the Seahawks, who currently sit at 1-2. Falling 1-3 in the toughest division in football would almost certainly push the Seahawks out of the playoff picture. Luckily, they have Russell Wilson; I would not want many QB’s in the NFL in a one-game scenario over Wilson. I understand that, once again, the Seahawks are giving up the most yards in the NFL, giving up 440.3 yds/gm. The 49ers are still missing their top two corners and expect Russ to cook vs. a depleted secondary. The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog, and San Francisco is 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 as a favorite. In a matchup where I get the better QB, HC, and both teams not having a solid defense, I expect this game to be a shootout that comes down to the last position. I’ll put my money on the QB that has the clutch gene.

Seahawks 31 49ers 27

2.Browns (-2) @ Vikings

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To put this game into simple terms. The Browns are just a better version of the Vikings. Their 1-2 punch at running back Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is slightly superior to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. I’ll give the wide receiver edge to the Vikings as they might have the best WR duo in the NFL. The Browns then have a better offensive line, defensive line, and secondary. I think most of us could say that Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins are on the same level. Where this game is won for me is in the trenches. Cousins doesn’t have the escapability to get away from Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, and the Browns have the 2nd most sacks in the NFL with 12 so far this season. Yes, the Vikings just won a game at home that they were also underdogs in. Yet, we have seen this story before. Consistency has always been an issue for the Vikings in the Kirk Cousins era, and I don’t know why I shouldn’t expect an average or worst performance on Sunday. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games and 2-8 ATS in their previous ten games overall. The under is 5-2 in Brown’s previous seven games as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in Viking’s previous six games overall. As I stated before, the Browns are just a better version of the Vikings, and I expect the talent differential to be displayed on Sunday. Browns continue their win streak.

 Browns 31 Vikings 21

3.Broncos (-1) Vs. Ravens (PJ’s Guarantee)

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Nice to get a little win streak going with my guarantees of the week as the Rams took care of business over the Buccaneers. My pick this week is in a very similar situation that the Rams were in last week. That team is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are one of six teams in the NFL that are still undefeated at 3-0. Yet their three wins have come from teams that are a combined 0-9. Regardless of the teams the Broncos have faced, their defense has been sensational. They have allowed the second least amount of yards per game this season, averaging 221.7 per game. They give up the 3rd least amount of passing yards at 162.3 per game, and their run defense ranks 2nd, giving up 59.3 per game. The cherry on top is that they are giving up an exceptional 8.7 points per game (Ranked 1st in the NFL). What’s taken the Broncos over the top is the QB play of Teddy Bridgewater. I can admit that I did not see Bridgewater playing at this high of a level.  So far this season, Bridgewater has 4TD to 0INT, and his QBR of 77.8 ranks 3rd in the NFL. He is also completed surgical 76.8% of his passes. He is making all the right plays and letting his defense take care of business. The Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. We all know the Ravens want to run the ball, and I get the Ravens will be the toughest competition the Broncos have faced this season. There is no more demanding place to play than Denver, Colorado. With the best defense currently in the NFL at home only favored by one, give me those odds every day of the week. I guarantee it!

Broncos 23 Ravens 17

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Jason is 2-1 on his “Guarantees” this season
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