NFL Week 7 Picks

Welcome to week 7 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)

Best Bets for Week 7

Best bet record this year: 8-10

I made a massive mistake in last week’s article. I said I was on fire. The gambling gods laid eyes on my article and said no, no, no, not today (In their best Dikembe Mutumbo voice). Boom! I go 0-3 on my best bets. My “Greenes Guarantee” doesn’t even come close as the Browns got blown out by the Cardinals. All I can do now is say I’m sorry to the gambling gods and hope they bless my picks this week. Let us pray this week’s picks are better, as here are my week seven best bets in the NFL.

1. Eagles (+3) @ Raiders

As an Eagles fan, I have tried my best not to have them ever on my best bets list, but this is a line I can not ignore. This is a trap game for the Raiders, and I am not falling for the trap that Vegas is trying to set. You are telling me that the 2-4 Eagles that have not beaten one team over.500 is a 3pt dog ON THE ROAD vs. a Raiders team that is 4-2 and just won a huge game @Denver. Jalen Hurts, to me, is very similar to Russell Wilson in his younger years in the league. He will not overly impress you with some of his throws, but he gets it done when it is time to make a play. The Panthers game was a perfect example of that. Oddly enough, the Eagles have played better on the road. This season, both the Eagle’s wins have come on the road, and they average 26.5 points per game this season. In their last seven games, Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog and 5-11 ATS in their previous 16 games following a loss. Las Vegas is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. These two teams, to me, are equal in talent; I expect Jalen Hurts to make just enough plays with his legs to win outright in Las Vegas. Birds fly home happy.

Eagles 26 Raiders 23

2. Falcons (-2.5) @ Dolphins 

This is the 3rd time this season that the Falcons have made my best bets list. Currently, they are 1-1 for me this season. I love them this week vs. the Dolphins. Currently, the Dolphins are the most disappointing team in the NFL, which is usually the Falcon’s job. Even with Tua back and a 13-3 lead vs. the Jaguars, they couldn’t get the job done, falling to 1-5. Now they have to travel back to Miami while the Falcons are coming off a bye week. They are rested and ready to go. Before the bye, the Falcons were playing some good football going 2-1 over their last three games. While the Falcons don’t have an elite defense, the Dolphin’s offense might be the worst in the NFL. They average 16.5 points per game and give up 29.5 points per game. Also, I am going to say it. Tua is a bust. He has no trust in his arm, and the Dolphins and I have no faith in his ability to throw the ball downfield. If the Falcons get beat by D-Grade lefty Alex Smith, I will tip my cap to the gambling gods. In their last seven games, the Falcons are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Dolphins 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five meetings. Off the bye, I expect Arthur Smith and his group to be ready to beat up on a down Dolphins squad. Falcons get to .500.

Falcons 23 Dolphins 17

3. Colts (+4) @ 49ers (PJ’s Guarantee)

Three weeks ago, I wrote that I thought the San Francisco 49ers were frauds. Since then, they have gone 0-2 and have fallen under .500 with a 2-3 record. I am here to tell you that they are not a .500 football and team, and the losing streak continues on Sunday night. While the Colts have a 2-4 record, they are much better than their record suggests. Those four losses came against the: Seahawks, Rams, Titans, and Ravens. Those teams combined have a 16-7 record. The 49ers have beaten nobody. While I understand that they are coming off a bye, the bye will not fix Trey Lance’s throwing mechanics in one week. Carson Wentz, on the other hand, has been playing some outstanding football as of late. His TD: INT ratio is 9:1 his CMP% is at 64.1, which is the highest since 2018. Frank Reich has been able to get the best out of Wentz. Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. San Francisco is 5-22-1 ATS in their previous 28 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their previous six home games. Kyle Shannahan has a career record of 6-25 when someone other than Jimmy G is the starter. He’s about to be 6-26. 

Colts 23 49ers 17

Jason is 3-3 on his “Guarantees” this season