Welcome to week 9 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)
Best Bets for Week 9
Best bet record this year: 11-13
Even though I went 1-2 on best bets last week, I believe I was on the right side of each play. Except one. The Bills dominated the entire game and had a beautiful backdoor cover at the end of the game. The Jags were just a miss. Off a bye, and they couldn’t move the ball past the Seattle 40. They got there at least five times and turned it over on downs each time. Pathetic. For my “Guarantee,” if you would have told me that the Bears put up 22 points at home with their defense, I would have thought they would have won the game outright. Give credit to the 49ers for executing offensively. Nonetheless, the road to .500 is still ongoing, so with further ado, let’s get into my week nine best bets.
1. Falcons (+6) vs. Saints
I know, what are you thinking? Jason, how can you trust the Falcons again? I don’t, but I trust Taysom Hill even less. Hill should be the starter for the saints as Winston is out for the year with a torn ACL. Not to mention this is a clear letdown game for the Saints; they just got their biggest win of the season by defeating the Buccaneers at home. The Falcons, of course, lost as favorites at home vs. the Panther. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 division games and 1-4 ATS in their previous five road games against a team with a winning home record, while the under is 5-2 in their last seven games as a road underdog. New Orleans is 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 division games, while the under is 11-3 in their previous 14 games following a win. The numbers don’t favor the Falcons, which is precisely why they will cover because they are the Falcons.
Saints 21 Falcons 20
2. Cardinals (PK) vs. 49ers
Another week of picks and another week of betting against the overrated San Francisco 49ers. I’ll admit they impressed me a little bit last week with their victory over the Bears. Yet now they have an objective test that I think they aren’t prepared for. This line is a PK because there is a slight possibility they star QB Kyler Murray doesn’t play this week with a lingering ankle sprain. Yet when these two teams last played, it was the worst offensive performance of the season by the Cardinals. So now Kliff Kingsberry gets an extra couple of days to prepare, and they are coming off their first season loss. Arizona is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their previous six games overall, while the under is 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in their previous seven home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, while the over is 5-1 in their last six games following a win. So if Kyler doesn’t play, this pick is screwed, but I would catch the line now because there is no way the line is PK if he does play.
Cardinals 23 49ers 20
3. Browns (+3) vs. Bengals (PJ’s Guarantee)
Oh, how things quickly change. The Browns entering the season had Superbowl expectations, and here they are 4-4 and last place in the AFC North. This has also come to some off-the-field drama as Odell Beckham Jr. is reportedly not with the team and is unlikely to play on Sunday. Yet, I don’t think Baker minds Odell not being on the field. He plays much better without him. Baker Mayfield had a passer rating of 96.9 with 2,171 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception in 9 games without Odell Beckham Jr. in 2020. I didn’t love this Bengals squad going into the year, yet they are 5-3. This is a “can you see it type game” If the Browns lose, they are 4-5 and most likely will not make the playoffs. The Bengals will be 6-3 and in the driver seat in the AFC North. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC. The Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-1 in Brown’s last five vs. AFC North. The under is 5-2 in the Bengals last seven games overall. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their previous six meetings in Cincinnati and 2-11 ATS in their previous 13 meetings. My gut tells me that this Browns team is good enough to make the playoffs, and the run starts now!
Browns 26 Bengals 24
