Welcome to week 14 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)
Best Bets for Week 14
We didn’t get the 3-0 sweep, but we again had a winning record of 2-1 on my best bets. Shame on me for thinking the Vikings could over against the Lions. Classic Kirk Cousins, am I right? For your information on last week’s picks, I went 13-1 straight up (Picking the winner of each game). The only game I got wrong was the Lions beating the Vikings. For ages, the Patriots covered vs. the Bills in a cold-weather game as Mac Jones threw the ball only three times. Of course, that’s just Bill Bellicheck being Bill Bellicheck. Lastly, how many writers you know out there would give the Steelers to win cover vs. the Ravens when the week before they got blown out 41-10; they didn’t just cover. They won outright like I also predicted. We are a streak of a lifetime as we are 12-3 over the past five weeks, and I have hit three straight “Greene’s Guarantees.” Let’s keep the hot streak alive and get into this week’s best bets.
Best bet record this year: 23-16
1.Broncos(-8) vs Lions
I get it, the Lions screwed me over last week in two ways, and maybe I want revenge on them, but the truth is they are s terrible football team. Unfortunately, the public loves a terrible team, and now that the Lions got their first win of the season out the way, it is the perfect time to fade them. Around 75% of the money is on the Lions, yet this one started at -7.5. The Broncos did just lose to the Chiefs, but it was a hell of an effort, in my opinion. They were able to move the ball, and their defense again looks terrific. Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, while the under is 5-0 in their previous five games as a road underdog. Denver is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite, while the under is 24-11 in their last 35 games in December. I get it the Lions are hot by their standards, but going into Denver is never easy to do, and with no Swift again, most likely, I just don’t see how Detriot can keep up. Denver’s defense shuts down the Lions.
Broncos 23 Lions 10
2. Cardinals (-1.5) vs Rams
Here we go again; Since entering the NFL in 2009, Matthew Stafford has been 8-68 (.106) against teams that finished the season with a winning record. This year Stafford is 1-3 in those games. I called out Vegas when they favored the Rams vs. the Packers two weeks ago, and once again, I am going against them here. I just have zero faith in Matt Stafford to get the job done in big games. Not only did Kyler look healthy last week vs. Chicago, but he also looked like he didn’t even lose a step as he rushed for 59 yards and two touchdowns. If the Cardinals were still beaten up, I would consider the Rams, but this is the healthiest the Cardinals have been in a while. In their last seven road games, LA is 2-5 ATS and 1-5 in their previous six overall.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus the NFC West and 8-2 ATS in their last ten overall. Arizona is 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the NFC.
The last time these two teams met, the Cardinals blew them out 37-20; while you could argue a nice bounce-back spot for the Rams if the Cardinals win this game, they have the NFC West locked up. No way they take their foot off the gas. Stafford loses another game to a team over .500.
Cardinals 31 Rams 26
3. Bills (+3.5) vs. Buccaneers (PJ’s Guarantee)
This is not going to be a popular pick. The Bills have lost three out of their last five games, and after their loss to the Patriots, they are 2nd place in the AFC East. Yet, it has just been the offense that has struggled. If you take out the Colts game, the Bills are giving up 11.5 points per game in those four games, yet their record is 2-2 in those games. However, I think the offense can get back on track vs. the Bucs. Over the last five weeks, the Bucs are giving up 24.6 points per game, and if you took out the game vs. the Giants, it would be 28.25 points in a four-game span. While the Bucs have the number one passing offense, the Bills give up the least amount of yards in the NFL and the 2nd fewest points. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss, while the over is 6-0 in their last six games as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite, while the under is 5-0 in their previous five home games against a team with a winning road record. Bot of these teams have been covering machines, but it’s one of the best offenses vs. one of the best defenses in the NFL and with the hook, always give me the defense. The Bills shock the NFL world and win in Tompa Bay.
Bills 31 Buccaneers 28