NFL Week 18 Picks

Welcome to week 18 of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)

Best Bets for Week 18

Last week was a frustrating 1-2 result for my three best bets. The Giants gave up only 24 points to the high-powered Cowboys offense, and even though they had five red-zone trips, they only came away with 6 points the entire game. The Browns games were crazy on and off the field. On the field, they played hard and had a chance to win and credit the Raiders for that clutch drive at the end. Off the field, when I made the pick, I thought Case Keenum was starting, not Nick Mullens, and the line in this game went from -6 favoring the Browns to -3 to -1 for the Raiders and ended at -3 for Raiders. While I did make money on Browns +3 for the article’s sake, my record shows what I posted, and that was Browns +1 hence an L. Finally, I get back over the .500 mark for my Greene’s Guarantee of the week as the Steelers came through vs. the Titans. Still have an excellent record going into the home stretch, so let’s get into my week 16 best bets without further ado.

Best bet record this year: 28-23

A lot has happened since my last best bets blog; I got Covid and still manage to go 3-3 in my best bets during the previous two weeks (it is like my Jordan Flu game). Let us stick with the previous week’s 2-1 result. The Bears took care of business at home vs. the sad Giants. The Panthers folded vs. the Saints; up 10-3 at one point and lost 19-10. Finally, my “Greene’s Guarantee” was the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they again came through for me. I also won my fantasy football championship for the first time in my career, so I had a pretty decent quarantine when it was all said and done. Regardless, let’s get into my week 18 best bets. 

1. Bears (+5.5) vs. Vikings 

I will continue to ride with the Bears to end the season. Maybe, it is because Nick Foles (although he didn’t start last game) has sprinkled some of his late-season magic on the Bears. However, I think this is one of the most disappointing seasons the Vikings have ever had. They are not making the playoffs for the third time in four years, and they had a top 10 offense and defense and turnover ratio, and they are going to end under .500. Everyone is talking about how this will be Matt Nagy’s last game as the HC of the Bears, but I think it is going to be Mike Zimmer’s last game as the HC of the Vikings. Chicago is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 division games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games in January, while the under is 4-1 in their last five games following a win. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, while the over is 5-2 in their last seven games as an underdog. It doesn’t matter the time or place, but division games are always close, and I think this one goes down to the wire.

Vikings 21 Bears 20

2. Dolphins(+6) vs Patriots

After winning seven straight, I understand that the Dolphins lost last week and are now eliminated from the postseason and have nothing to play for, but this is way too many points vs. an elite defense. The Patriots, I believe, with a win and a Bills lost due clinch the AFC East. The only problem with that scenario is that the Bills play the Jets in Buffalo. I am not saying that the Patriots will be scoreboard watching, but I am not convinced they are 6 points better than the Dolphins. The Pats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after an ATS win and 6-1 ATS in their last seven as favorites. New England is 8-2 ATS in their last ten overall.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine. Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five after an ATS loss. In my mind, Brian Flores is an excellent coach, and there is no way he won’t have his team up for this game regardless of what they are playing for; Dolphins keep it close. 

Patriots 17 Dolphins 16

3. Jaguars(+15) vs. Colts (PJ’s Guarantee)

The scenario is pretty simple for Colts fans; win, and you’re in. Of course, it should be pretty easy since they are playing the 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars. But, WRONG!!! The Colts have lost their last seven games in Jacksonville. Also, I love to fade the Colts in this spot because every square will be throwing on the Colts. After all, the public knows that they are in the playoffs if they win. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last ten home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. The under is 4-0 in Colt’s last four games overall. The under is 11-4 in Jaguar’s last 15 games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Jacksonville and 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Colts will still win and get in, but the Jags will make it challenging!

Colts 21 Jaguars 17

Jason is 9-8 on his “Guarantees’ this season