Sunday’s Conference Championship Picks


Safran Special: Chiefs -1 & Over 48.5

First off for the new audience, the Safran Special is a trademark bet of mine.  It’s simply teasing the spread and the points total of the same game together.  Nothing revolutionary, however I never see anyone doing this so I’ve taken the liberty of coining it the Safran Special.  These two teams played one of the best regular season games of the year less than a month ago as the Bengals won 34-31.  All due respect to the Bengals, but the Chiefs have a way of rising to the playoffs and I don’t think we see a Bengals upset.  That being said, I’m not in love with the Chiefs number at -7 (-7.5 depending on your book), you have to give the Bengals the respect they deserve.  Originally when I went to make this pick I was on the under, however why bet against the Chiefs pouring on points.  They’ve scored 42 in their first two games, and in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs are averaging 33.2 points per game in the playoffs.  Take the Bucs  Superbowl out of that equation and they’re averaging 35.89 points per game in the playoffs.  I do anticipate a slightly more methodical approach from both teams tomorrow, but for this Safran Special, all we need is both teams to score in the mid 20s and the Chiefs to win.  The recipe for success is Mahomes + Chiefs O-Line + the Bengals not having a great option to cover Kelce.  


49ers vs Rams: Rams -3.5

Are the Rams really going to get disrespected all the way to the Super Bowl? I say yes, and I’ll be damned if Jimmy G burns me again.  The 49ers defense has in fact unlocked a new level of their defense in the postseason, but the Rams offense have ALSO unlocked a new level of their offense.  The Rams are simply firing on all cylinders these playoffs.  The one complaint is the sheer fact that they let their foot off the gas last game and stalled out, but when Stafford was called upon he absolutely delivered.  While the Packers came into the playoffs as many people’s favorites to win the Super Bowl, the fact of the matter is that the Rams have more weapons.  Kupp takes the place of Davante Adams, but the Rams have OBJ, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee to supplement.  Also we all saw Cam Akers fumble friggin 40 times last week, but that guy is a straight gamer.  He’s looked like a dangerous RB1 and a pleasant surprise for McVay and company these playoffs.  On the other side, Jimmy Garroppolo is a scarecrow.  I truly don’t know how he keeps winning games (and I tip my cap to him for that), but something’s gotta give here.  Look for the Rams to bring pressure early, you better believe they’ll be going for that shoulder and thumb.  


Conference Chip Teaser: Bengals/Chiefs O 48, Chiefs -0.5, 49ers/Rams U52.5, Rams +3 (+230)  If you want a fun (realistic) parlay for this weekend, go ahead and tease all four legs from the games this weekend.  I’ve stated my case for the Chiefs, the over, and the Rams.  So I threw the under into this teaser because as much as I think the Rams will win based on their offense, I’d be remiss to not give the 49ers their defensive flowers.  This game may be a bit ugly at points and I don’t see both teams reaching the mid 20s.  Best of luck to everyone this weekend!

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