CBB Record: 4-2-1

Super Tuesday Picks 

 

7 pm EST – Auburn vs Arkansas: Auburn -1

 

Auburn is the number 1 team in the country and they’ve proven their worth through every test they’ve faced.  Arkansas is a good team this year with countless wins against respectable opponents, however only one win against a ranked team.  That win came against a 13th ranked LSU who has since plummeted out of the top 25.  This line is surely a result of Auburn’s past two road games, narrow victories against two bad SEC teams in the forms of Missouri and Georgia.  Though I understand where Vegas got this number, it’s an overreaction in my opinion.  Arkansas is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country while Auburn is ranked 16th in overall defensive efficiency.  Then there’s the potential first pick in the draft, Jabari Smith.  Smith was held to under 10 points in Auburn’s last game, something that has only happened to him three times this entire season.  Following Smith’s other poor performances, he came back swinging in the following game, averaging almost 23 ppg in the subsequent matchup. This isn’t rocket science, all you’re betting on is the #1 team in the country to take a short trip to Arkansas and beat a Razorback team that doesn’t have a real win against a ranked opponent, let alone one of Auburn’s caliber.  Arkansas is good, but Auburn is in a different tier.

 

7 pm EST – West Virginia vs Iowa State: Under 129

 

Simply put, these are two programs that have built their identities around their defense.  Iowa State ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency, with West Virginia ranking a respectable 78th.  Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the country in possessions per game (PACE).  Finally, Iowa state is 16th in opponents ppg (61) and West Virginia is 73rd (65.9).  I’m not typically a statistics or advanced metrics/numbers guy, but I had to go to the numbers to show why this over SHOULD NOT hit.  This is the first time I’ve taken a point total giving out picks so you better believe I feel good about it.  Two defensive titans going blow for blow, I’m anticipating the score hovering around low 60s for both teams.  It might be a sweaty under, but an under nonetheless.

 

7 pm EST – LSU vs Texas A&M: Texas A&M +1.5

 

This is certainly not a sexy pick, but a game that bracketologist like myself will be glued to.  Both of these teams had fantastic starts to the season and came out the gates looking like dark horses in the SEC.  Recently however… Not so much.  Texas A&M started the year 15-2, since then, they’ve gone on a six game losing streak.  LSU started the year 15-1, since that, they’ve gone 1-6, with their lone win coming against Texas A&M.  These are two even teams that have shown flashes of good and flashes of horrible.  For this pick there aren’t any advanced metrics or numbers, but simply a matter of something’s got to give.  LSU won when they were at home, now it’s Texas A&M’s turn to host.  Take the Aggies +1.5 as there is a chance they lose by one here.

 

(FUN PLAY) 7 pm EST – Toledo vs Ohio: YES Game to go to OT +1200

 

Let’s all relax, this is nothing more than a fun play to sprinkle on.  Call me what you want but I’ve been enamored with MACtion this college hoops season.  It probably won’t happen, but if there was ever a year for the MAC to send two teams it’s 2022.  Toledo and Ohio have dominated the conference this year.  Currently Ohio sits atop the conference leading by a half game, however their only loss this entire season was against Toledo.  This game is humungous for both of these teams tonight.  I would love to pick aside but this matchup is too juicy.  I’m expecting a wire-to-wire barn burner that may need more than regulation to find a winner.  Sprinkle a little fun bet in tonight’s action with this game to go to OT.

 

Photo: Jacob Taylor/AU Athletics

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