Welcome to the Super Bowl LVI weekend of the 2021-2022 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! If this is also your first time reading this blog, well, we are already at the end of the season but, each week, I give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will be giving predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the winner of the game), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)
NFL Conference Championship Weekend Recap
While I continue with a perfect record in my Greene’s Guarantees for the NFL Playoffs at 3-0, I can not say I had a good Conference Championship weekend. I had three NFL futures to win the Super Bowl. The Chargers +3000, Chiefs +600, and 49ers +2900. Both the Chiefs and the 49ers had leads going into the 4th quarter, and both of them blew it, costing me a bunch of potential money. All I needed was for one of those teams to come out with the victory, and I could have had a very relaxing Super Bowl just hedging and guaranteeing myself some money. The gambling gods said, “not so fast, my friend,” and my heart was slowly broken in each game. Regardless the 49ers did cover the +3.5 for me, so at least the weekend wasn’t a total failure. Of course, there is only one game left, so that has to be my Greene’s Guarantee of the week, so without further ado, let’s get into my pick for Super Bowl LVI!
Best Bet record: 34-25 (4-1 in the Postseason)
PJ’S Guarantee Record: 13-8 (3-0 in the Postseason)
1. Rams(-4) vs. Bengals
This game reminds me a lot of last year’s Super Bowl. The Rams have the better; O-line, D-line, Secondary, Special Teams, and Head Coach. The Bengals have Joe Burrow. The Chiefs last year had Patrick Mahomes, and I fell for the trap that he could miraculously do Mahomes things and win them the game vs. the Buccaneers. I won’t make the same mistake again, and I don’t believe that Joe Burrow can climb this absurd mountain again. The biggest issue for me is pass protection for Burrow; the Bengals give up pressure on 48.6% of pass plays this season which ranked third-worst in the NFL. The Rams have three monsters in Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd on the defensive line. The Bengals could get away with the Chiefs because they had a weak secondary; the Rams have Jalen Ramsey. The difference between the Titans game and this one where they allowed eight sacks is that they won’t be playing Ryan Tannehill on the other side of the ball. So the Rams have a better d-line than the Titans. They gave them trouble, and they have an equal passing attack/weapons to the Chiefs, who could go up and down the field against them. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite. In their last five games as an underdog, the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four playoff games. The under is 6-2 in Ram’s last eight games on field turf. The under is 4-0 in Bengal’s last four games overall. The Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. I get it; it is so hard to bet against Joe Burrow; it seems the stars are aligning for him to be the next Tom Brady in terms of its factor. Yet, in Super Bowl, LVI in LOS ANGELES give me the complete football team every time.
