Feeling the Heat: How the Weather Impacts NFL Outcomes

A new report from The Action Network reveals which NFL cities are most affected by various weather conditions during the regular season.

Meteorologist Kevin Roth explains how different weather conditions can impact NFL games.

The weather during the NFL season can play a big role in the outcomes of games. With the regular season spanning from September to January, NFL teams (and players) are subject to an array of weather conditions. As a bettor, understanding how various weather conditions impact a game could increase your chances of placing a winning wager. So, how might the weather affect gameplay, and which teams faced the worst conditions over the course of last season?

Action Network dove into the data to see how different NFL teams could have been impacted by the weather, highlighting the top stadiums where conditions were most prevalent over the regular season (stadiums with fixed or retractable roofs were not included in the data).

Furthermore, the team also spoke to meteorologist Kevin Roth to explain how varying weather conditions impact the game from a player performance perspective.

How are NFL teams affected by different conditions?

Wind

Wind tends to be the most impactful weather condition, according to Roth, as it can severely hamper both the passing and kicking games.

Typically, low-scoring affairs are the result of windy conditions.

Below is a table showing the top five windiest NFL locations based on monthly averages during the 2021 regular season:

Rain

Light rain has a pretty negligible effect on NFL games.

It’s heavy rain that bettors have to be wary of as there is a natural uptick in turnovers and unpredictability. Strong rain is a recipe for sloppy play.

Below is a table showing the top five rainiest NFL locations based on monthly averages during the 2021 regular season:

Snow

A snowy field can be most detrimental to defenders, usually, says Roth. Pass rushers and defensive backs typically have a harder time making plays, which gives quarterbacks more time to make plays.

Light to moderate numbers can actually boost passing numbers.

Below is a table showing the top five snowiest NFL locations based on monthly averages during the 2021 regular season:

Heat

Heat is an issue that is generally only a factor at the beginning part of the season. Teams playing in warmer weather climates, especially Florida, have to contend with soaring temperatures the most.

Fatigue is a big factor in hot weather, and this is typically seen in sluggish defensive play near the end of games.

Below is a table showing the top five hottest NFL locations based on monthly averages during the 2021 regular season:

Cold

Nothing screams NFL Playoffs more than a cold January game. While the discomfort level may be high playing in frigid temperatures, Kevin explains that this condition doesn’t usually impact games dramatically.

There’s only a slight difference in performance numbers in colder weather compared to playing in warmer temperatures.

Below is a table showing the top five coldest NFL locations based on monthly averages during the 2021 regular season:

Which NFL locations experienced the most intense weather?

Below is a table showing the top NFL locations for each weather condition, based on monthly averages:

Methodology

To determine which NFL franchises are most affected by the weather, we recorded temperature, snowfall, rainfall, and wind speed data for each US location where there’s an NFL stadium.

Data was collected for the period September 2021 – January 2022 (the duration of the NFL regular season). We then ranked the data; accordingly, they revealed the teams most impacted by the heat, cold, rain, snow, and wind.

Featured Image: The Action Network