NFL First Team Eliminated Odds: Who Won’t Make Playoffs?

Before any NFL season begins, the goal is a postseason berth.

For a handful of teams, that changes quickly.

By Week 13, teams get eliminated from postseason consideration.

Last year, it was the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions that officially could begin preparing for the following year after Week 13 losses.

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has created hypothetical NFL betting odds as to which team will be the first to call it a season in 2022.

First Team Eliminated From Playoff Contention Odds

Team	Odds	Implied Probability
Panthers	+400	20%
Commanders	+475	17.4%
Texans	+525	16%
Steelers	+600	14.3%
Bears	+750	11.8%
Lions	+950	9.5%
Jaguars	+1450	6.5%
Cardinals	+2000	4.8%
Broncos	+2500	3.9%
Raiders	+2500	3.9%
The Field	+750	11.8%

**These NFL futures odds are for entertainment purposes only and have been created by our Bookies.com handicapper. They do not reflect actual odds that may be available on betting apps.

The Panthers (1-5) surprised the Saints in Week 3 but have since lost three straight, all by double figures. The QB situation is dire, the coach has been fired, and no offense generates fewer yards. Carolina’s only saving grace is a schedule that ranks fifth-easiest the rest of the way.

The Commanders (2-4) have wins over the Jaguars and Bears, two teams trying not to compete for this favorite status. But the Washington offense is averaging 11.8 ppg the last four weeks, QB Carson Wentz is dealing with a fractured thumb, and the team has the single-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

No team is worse statistically than the Texans (1-3-1), who rank 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense. Yet they’ve been competitive, coming off their bye week with a win over the Jaguars and three other games decided by a TD or less. Houston has the sixth-toughest remaining schedule. A week 11 showdown with the Commanders may loom big.

The Steelers (2-4) haven’t had a losing record since 2003, but right now, the offense ranks 29th, the defense ranks 29th – and they’re playing in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions. Only the Bears and Broncos score less. A favorable schedule, and a surprising win over the Buccaneers in Week 6, keep Pittsburgh out of the top group.

Few offenses have been as strong, and no defense has been as poor as the units coming out of Detroit. The Lions (1-4) have scored 35 and 45 points in losing efforts but were just blanked by the Patriots in Week 5. Detroit is coming off its bye week, and the NFC North has shown chinks in the armor.

The passing offense of the Bears (2-4) has been offensive, but the run game and pass defense are top-three in the NFL. If Justin Fields can hold up his end, Chicago can still make a run. That said, the Bears have the second-hardest remaining schedule.

The Jaguars (2-4) were a surprise team at 2-1 but have now lost three in a row, including divisional games to the Texans and Colts. Can they turn it around? Through six weeks, the Jaguars still rank 11th in both total offense and total defense.

Arizona (2-4) also ranks in the upper half in the NFL both offensively and defensively but has little to show for it. The Cardinals lost to the Eagles in a tight 20-17 game but followed that up with a surprising 19-9 loss at Seattle. Kyler Murray and Co. don’t have a truly easy game left on the schedule.

The Raiders (1-4) and Broncos (2-4) are chasing the Chiefs and Chargers in a brutally tough AFC West. The Broncos still must play Kansas City twice but has one of the NFL’s premier defenses. The Raiders have looked better and have a slightly easier schedule, though it won’t matter if the losses keep mounting.