Bill Belichick | Biography & Facts | Britannica

Welcome to week 8 of the 2022-2023 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL each week. First, First, First, I will provide predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the game’s winner), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under of the total. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. Last Year I had a pretty successful season, so without further ado, let’s get into it!

 Best Bets for Week 8

The best bet record this year was 9-12

I have no excuses; last week was terrible. I was reverse-swept on my best bets, going 0-3 for the first time this season. I knew the Patriots bet was in trouble when Mac Jones was announced the starter, and even though Zappe came in and gave them a huge boost, it was not enough as the Patriots had an extremely unrealistic off-game on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars continue to be the best team not to win games; once again, they did an excellent job moving the football; but they didn’t capitalize on enough drives. Finally, the Broncos failed me. One of the cons of getting these articles out on Thursday is that injury reports aren’t always finalized. I had heard that Wilson’s hamstring injury was minor, and on Friday, a report came out that it was a minor tear. He, of course, ends up inactive, and the Broncos couldn’t score enough points. I now fall to 9-12 on best bets, which certainly doesn’t make me happy! It’s time to bounce back, so without further ado, let’s get into my week eight best bets in the NFL.

1. Green Bay Packers (+11.5) @ Buffalo Bills

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It feels like the sky is falling in Green Bay right now. The Packers have lost three straight games for the first time in four seasons, and one of the most talented defenses in the NFL hasn’t held a team below 23 points in four games, yet everyone needs to RELAX. The Packers are going to cover vs. the Bills. The NFL is a weird sport to bet on, the Bills are the best team in the NFL, and yet I don’t believe they can cover this big of a spread. The one thing the Packers can do is run the football. Led by a top-3 running back combo in Aaron Jones and A.J Dillion, known as power backs, I expect them to be an absolute pain to tackle in the chilly Buffalo. 

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four-week eight matchups, and the under is 4-0 in their last four games. I think the Packers will do their best to take the ball out of Josh Allen’s hand and run the football. I also believe the defense will play like the top-5 defense they were projected to be and keep this game closer than people think. The Packers cover but still drop their 4th straight loss. 

Bills 27 Packers 20 

 

2. Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

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A few weeks ago, my Greene’s Guarantee was the 49ers +2 at home vs. the Los Angeles Rams. This week we are going the opposite. The Rams have struggled this year, but there was no better time to have a bye-week, especially when you have Sean Mcvay as your coach. Additionally, the Rams get their starting center back while the 49ers continue to pile up on injuries. I also believe the line is inflated for the 49ers with the acquisition of CMC, a position that was not necessary for this team. 

The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four versus the NFC West and 8-2 ATS in the previous ten versus the NFC. San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in their last eight after an ATS loss. Meanwhile, the Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 after a bye week and 4-9 ATS versus a team with a losing record. LA is 1-4 ATS in their previous five in October. 

This is a huge divisional matchup, and with the Rams coming off the bye and being the healthier team, they will look more like the team that won the Superbowl and picks up a massive win within the division.

Rams 23 49ers 20

 

3. New England Patriots (-1.5) vs. New York Jets (Greene’s Guarantee)

I’m doing it again. I’m fading the New York Jets; they are frauds! Once again, they played in a game where they scored one offensive touchdown. Now they play the New England Patriots, a team outplayed by the Chicago Bears at home. I think that was a trap game (which I, of course, couldn’t identify!), and the public was all over them, and Vegas collected their coin. This week it will be different! This is a perfect bounce-back spot for Bellichek. He is once again facing a QB that can’t throw the ball. Zach Wilson is averaging 173.3 yards per game, and he doesn’t have the same escape ability that Justin Fields put on display on Monday Night. He has also only thrown one TD this season, and they will be without starting running back Breece Hall as he is out for the season with a torn ACL. 

New England is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 division games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. New York is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 division games and 4-1 ATS in their previous five games against a team with a losing record.

Once again, I believe the Patriots can win the turnover battle, and I expect the QB situation to be settled this time and the offense to put up a much better performance. The Patriots bounce back with a huge divisional win; I guarantee it!

 

Patriots 24, Jets 14 

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