How Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Packers for a ...

Welcome to week 10 of the 2022-2023 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL each week. First, First, First, I will provide predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the game’s winner), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under of the total. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. Last Year I had a pretty successful season, so without further ado, let’s get into it!

 Best Bets for Week 10

The best bet record this year was 12-15

Last week, I made a passionate statement on how it was time to get on a run; that did not happen. The Packers held the Lions to 15 points; I did not consider that Aaron Rodgers would throw three interceptions in the red zone!! That had trap game vibes written all over it, and naturally, I was on the wrong side of it. The Cardinal’s pick was just bad; no other way around it. I don’t understand that team; they go down the field and score a TD on the game’s first drive. After that, they couldn’t move the ball, and for some reason, they called zero-read options for one of the most dynamic QBs in the league. Just mindblowing. The only good news from last week’s picks was that Greene’s Guarantee is on a winning streak, as the Commanders covered the +3.5 vs. the Vikings. I hope my readers got it at 3.5 cause I saw it dropped to 3 at a bunch of sportsbooks. So, we get over the .500 mark on the guarantees, but the best bet record continues to fall. I need a winning week here, so let’s get into my best bets for week 10 of the NFL season.

1. Carolina Panthers (+3) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Dj Moore GIFs | Tenor

The Panthers just got obliterated by 28 point by the Cincinnati Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, the Falcons just lost a tightly contested matchup vs. an excellent Chargers team, and the Falcons just beat the Panthers 2 weeks ago seems like they should do it again, right? Wrong! Here’s a crazy stat for you. It is incredibly profitable to be on an NFL team coming off a 20 pt loss. Look at the trends since 2003 from John Ewing.

 

20 or more points432-366-18 (54.1%)+41.85+4.6%
28 or more points157-127-8 (55.3%)+20.95+7.2%
35 or more points58-36-5 (61.7%)+18.53+18.7

 

In this NFL season alone, teams that lose by 20 points in the prior game are 9-2 ATS hitting at an 81% clip. From a football perspective, the Panthers lost that game two weeks ago only because their kicker missed the game-winning extra point and a 33-yard field goal. My only concern is who will start at QB. I have no doubt the Panthers will be able to run all over the Falcon’s defense, and I expect the Panther’s defense to put up a much better performance at home. On paper, this is probably the worst NFL game of the season; the only way to enjoy it is to bet on it. The Panthers pull out an ugly one on Thursday Night Football.

Panthers 23 Falcons 17

 

2. Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Russell Wilson GIFs | Tenor

Reports say QB Ryan Tannehill is still dealing with pain in his ankle and has been a limited participant in Titan’s practice. If he can’t go, rookie Malik Willis will be making his third straight, and while he is 2-0 ATS in those games, the Broncos are the perfect matchup vs. the Titans. The Broncos are first in the NFL, only allowing 165.8 yards per game in the passing game. This means they are extremely confident that Willis will not be able to beat them through the air and can stack the box to shut down Derrick Henry and that run game. 

The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 versus the AFC. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their previous five in Week 10.

Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-0 ATS in their final six overall and 5-0 ATS in the last five after an ATS win. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a losing record. This matchup vs. two very good defenses will lead to an ugly game. The Broncos are coming off the bye and are more rested than a Titans team that has run the ball 74 times over the past two games. Malik Wills can’t keep getting away with not throwing the football effectively. Not to mention, I will trust Russell Wilson to get the job done over the rookie in the clutch. The Broncos get a huge road win.

Broncos 21 Titans 16

 

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (Greene’s Guarantee)

 

Sometimes in an NFL season, you can pick a moment when their season turned around; I believe it was that game-winning drive for the Buccaneers last week vs. the Rams. You could see the happiness on their players’ faces as they put together that final drive. Now they head overseas to Berlin, Germany, for the first-ever game in Germany as part of the NFL International series. There are a couple of reasons I like the Bucs in this spot, the first being the timezone difference. While both teams have to deal with a substantial time zone difference, the Bucs player will be dealing with a 6-hour difference, while the Seahawks will be dealing with a 9-hour difference. Maybe a reach but an advantage for Brady and Co. nonetheless. Second, the Bucs have excellent defense. Over the last five games, they have given up more than 20 points once, and they are also awesome at getting to the QB, as they are third in the NFL with 29 sacks.

The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall and 4-1 ATS in the last five on turf. Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games in November and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven overall. Tampa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four versus the NFC. The Goat hasn’t been up to his standard this season, and this is also my third time betting against the Seahawks, and so far, I am 0-2; the Goat is going to fix that; I Guarantee it!

Buccaneers 26 Seahawks 16

George Zimmer / I Guarantee It | Know Your Meme
Jason is 5-4 on his “Guarantees” this season
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