Welcome to the Wild Card round of the 2022-2023 NFL season playoffs. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL each week. First, First, First, I will provide predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the game’s winner), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under of the total. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. Last Year I had a pretty successful season, so without further ado, let’s get into it.
*Due to fewer games during the playoffs, the Wild Card round will have three best bets and a Greene’s Guarantee. There will only be a Greene’s Guarantee in the Divisional, Conference Championships, and Superbowl rounds.
Best Bets for the Divisional Round
Best bet record this year was 29-26-1 (2-1 in the Postseason)
I started off my best bets at 0-1 with the Vikings just not being able to stop an average Giants offense, and while I predicted they would be able to get up and down the field on the Giant’s D, they weren’t able to get enough stops and once again and NFL Qb through short of the line on a 4th down. The Ravens, even with Tyler Huntly at QB, covered with ease and should’ve won outright, in my opinion. Then we get to Greene’s Guarantee, where we got a little lucky this week. The Jaguars were down 27-0 at one point and made the most remarkable comeback in postseason history. While luck was on our side, this didn’t shock me, as in my writing-up, I talked about how untrustworthy Brandon Staley is. Nonetheless, I move to 12-7 on guarantees this season so let’s get into my best bet for this weekend.
1. Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (Greene’s Guarantee)
It was just a year ago when my guarantee of the week was the 49ers (+3.5) when they visited Jerry’s world in the playoffs. Now the roles are reversed, and I love the Dallas Cowboys this weekend! America’s team is making its Super Bowl run, and it is one of those bets I do not doubt about. Listen, these two teams are practically even. The Cowboys have the edge in the QB spot, while the 49ers have the advantage in the secondary. Both teams have an elite d-line, o-line, and an assortment of weapons with creative play callers. This game will come down to the QB position and who can consistently make tight throws. I understand that Dak Prescott leads the NFL in INT while only playing in 11 games this season, but in the playoffs, Dak has always shown up even in losses in the postseason. Look at every team Brock Purdy has played so far, and give me one elite defense he has faced. Commanders? Buccaneers? This Dallas defense is at another level, and expect them to show up on Sunday.
The Cowboys are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games and 1-4 ATS in their previous five Divisional Playoff games. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their previous four playoff games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after an ATS win. San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in their previous 14 at home.
A rookie QB has never won the Superbowl, and a rookie QB has never gotten to a Super Bowl; only one has ever made it to the Championship game. This is the test for Brock Purdy, and he comes up short. The Cowboys cover and win outright! I Guarantee it!
Cowboys 23 49ers 20
Jason is 12-7 (1-0 in Playoffs) on his “Guarantees” this season
