Welcome to the Conference Championship weekend of the 2022-2023 NFL Season. If this is the first time reading one of my articles, welcome to my weekly picks blog! Each week I will give you guys’ predictions for every game in the NFL that week. I will give predictions in three ways: Straight up (Picking the game’s winner), ATS (Against the Spread), and Over/Under the total game. Then, I will give my three best bets every week in more in-depth, and those will only be ATS; one of them will be my Greene Guarantee of the week. So without further ado, let’s get into it! (All lines presented by DraftKings)
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Recap
Last week was a frustrating one for me. The Cowboys couldn’t cover the +3.5, which puts my postseason record to 2-2, and Guarantees in the playoffs are now 1-1. I still believe the Cowboys were the better team, but one team caught a tipped ball for an interception, and the other team dropped one. The team that dropped one was my bet of the Cowboys, and of course, Treveon Diggs has led the NFL in Interceptions since he entered the league. What are the odds? With that frustrating loss put aside, it is time to move on. We are down to the final four of the NFL season, and with a Super Bowl trip on the line, my guarantee of the week is….
Best Bet record: 29-28-1 (2-2 in the Postseason)
Greene’s Guarantee Record: 12-8 (1-1 in the Postseason)
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Greene’s Guarantee)
I am sick of all the Joe Burrow love. I faded him in the divisional round and won ( a game he should’ve lost straight up), I faded him last week against the Bills and lost, and I am fading him vs. the Chiefs. I don’t give a crap that Burrow is 3-0 in his career vs. Patrick Mahomes; I don’t care that he came into Arrowhead last season and won in the AFC Championship game. If you give me the best QB in the NFL as an underdog, I will take that 100 times out of 100. Yes, I understand Mahomes is hobbled with a high ankle sprain, but this is the same situation in the 2020-2021 AFC championship. Mahomes hurt his ankle vs. the Browns the week before and couldn’t finish the game, and then he hung 38 points while going 29/38 and 3 TD vs. the Bills at home.
Mahomes is 6-1-1 against the spread when he’s been listed as an underdog throughout his career and 5-3 straight up. For full transparency, Mahomes has been a home underdog once this season in week six v. the Bills, and they lost 24-20. Cincinnati is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games, while the under is 15-7-1 in their last 23 games. Kansas City is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten home games, while the under is 4-1 in their last five games against a team with a winning record.
In his six playoff games, Joe Burrow has never thrown a 4th quarter TD, he hasn’t thrown for more than 230 yards this postseason, and he is not lighting up the scoreboard. The Chief’s defense holds up, and Mahomes plays just fine as the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl. I guarantee it!
* I understand the line is now Cheifs -1.5, and everything I said is irrelevant, but I got it at this number, and thats the advantage of betting early and the disadvantage of posting lately. We ride!
Chiefs 24 Bengals 20
Jason is 12-8 (1-1 Postseason) on his “Guarantee” this season
