What We Were Wrong About in the First Half of the MLB Season
Amid the All-Star Weekend festivities, we’re over halfway through the season and approaching the home stretch.
While the trade deadline is at the end of the month, and organizations will be trying to either improve upon their fixable flaws or flip the narrative ahead of the home stretch, for the most part, we know who is who by now.
What makes baseball such a romantic sport is that year after year, narratives and players that we would have never expected to appear come out of nowhere and not only surprise us all but make us look like idiots because of the predictions that we made in April!
We are not going to go down as the pundits who will die on the hill of whatever wildly incorrect take that they spewed out of pride.
In the immortal words of Jerry Orbach in Dirty Dancing, “When I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong.”
Let’s look back at what we thought was going to be the story going into the season that we have been proved incorrect on for the first segment of this 2024 baseball season.
The “New Manager Rebuilding Phase”
Both the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cleveland Guardians have been postseason machines in small markets that started off the season going through major changes in terms of their identity.
The Brewers lost their manager, Craig Counsell, to the blood rival Cubs after he accepted the largest managerial contract in history. After an early postseason flameout last year, they promoted from within and hired bench coach Pat Murphy, they traded away their ace pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for prospects, and were looking at potentially retooling in a rising NL Central.
The Guardians, meanwhile, had future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona retire after 10 years with the franchise and being such a large part of what they’ve built as one of the most iconic faces in baseball. After missing the postseason entirely last year and having Shane Bieber in trade rumors to start the year with the youngest roster in baseball, bringing in first-time manager Steven Vogt was thought to be a move that would be a slow play to develop talent and usher in a new era over the long game.
They both just happened to skip the “new transition” phase and got straight to winning.
The Brewers have been coasting in first place in the NL Central from end-to-end and have appeared to have won the Counsell breakup, while the Cubs have been in last place. Murphy has given them a fighting mentality and culture as the “bad boys” of baseball with all the scraps they’ve gotten into. William Contreras, Christian Yelich, and Brice Turang’s all-around play at the plate and on the basepaths have made them a top-10 offense in baseball that can beat you in a variety of ways with their next-man-up mentality.
Cleveland’s buying into Vogt and changing its identity to a hitting factory with its young core has replicated that formula. At the same time, both squads have had to use some of the most pitchers in baseball; the long ball now flies in Cleveland after being historically bad last year. If Steven Kwan, the hit king, gets on base and one of Jo-
Ram, David Fry, or Josh Naylor knocks him in, and they outscore another team in the first half of a game. Their lights-out bullpen hands them a victory. We’re sorry for doubting the two Central Division kings, who remained a model of consistency despite the change.
Kansas City Royal Pains
Speaking of the Central, if you believed in the Kansas City Royals and their preseason +200000 World Series odds, you’d be lying. While we praised them for being one of the few franchises who spent money this offseason, bringing in Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Adam Frazier on low-stakes contracts and then inking the franchise player Bobby Witt Jr. to essentially a lifetime deal to be the man, Witt Jr. was still just 23, they were coming off losing over 100 games, and they had one of the worst farm systems in baseball to replenish the talent.
While they may not be in World Series contention come October, they’ve been one of the best characters in baseball, as the pleasant surprises could be a thorn in your side as a team that’s been in and out of wild card contention. Witt Jr. looks ahead of schedule as an MVP candidate, Seth Lugo somehow turned into an AL Cy Young candidate as an All-Star with an 11-4 record and 2.48 ERA, and Salvador Perez has captured the fountain of youth as the best-hitting catcher. Is it sustainable? Maybe not. But we’re sorry for believing they had another dumpster fire season on the way.
The Mild Mild West
In both the AL and NL Wests, there was an argument to be made that either division could have potentially three of the five teams in the postseason. The AL had the defending champion Rangers running it back, the Mariners trying to get back on track with what many perceive as the best rotation in baseball, and the Astros have been the team to beat in the League for the last decade.
The NL had the Diamondbacks coming off of making the World Series, the Dodgers who spent a billion dollars in free agency and added Shohei Ohtani, and even the Padres and Giants both made additions after having recent postseason appearances with San Diego trading for Dylan Cease and always being the unpredictable buyer and the Giants adding Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Cy Young winner Blake Snell, and international signing Jung Hoo Lee.
Relative to their team-by-team expectations, it feels as if every single team has underperformed or been underwhelming.
The Mariners are the most miserable first-place team in history because they have the worst batting average in the league. The Astros have shown some life but dug themselves into a mountain of a hill with their worst opening record since the pre-World Series tanking Days. Meanwhile, the remainder of the teams have been so injured or consistently around the .500 mark that it feels as if no one is trustworthy despite the talent.
The Rangers are potentially deadline sellers, the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants could go either way with one bad week as they’re all within just 2 games of a winning record, and the Dodgers don’t look unbeatable, which was the expectation.
It’s been a mild, mild west.
The Bottom of the AL East
The consensus opinion about the AL East was that the Yankees and Orioles would be World Series contenders, but the general perception of the rest of the three could be narrowed down to things such as:
“The Red Sox are not serious people once again!”
“The Rays are a small market analytics factory. Even with their injuries, they’ll figure it out.”
“The Blue Jays have generational talent in this core in their prime, and they’ve made moves believing they need to win now.”
Well, the Red Sox went from being ridiculed for their “full throttle” offseason being a dud to being in Wild Card contention. The joke was that despite their Netflix docuseries lined up was that it would chronicle a last-place team whose only notable pitching addition was now-injured Lucas Giolito, yet Jaren Duran is an All-Star outfielder and Tanner Houck is a top-5 Cy Young candidate on one of the best pitching staffs in baseball despite playing in a pitchers park, and Alex Cora has turned them into Wild Card contenders trying to buy at the deadline.
The Rays and Jays, on the other hand, could potentially tear down their rosters as Tampa has already sold off Civale, and Toronto’s fan base is in full meltdown mode at the idea of trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, or Bo Bichette after having years of World Series aspirations.
Underestimating the Power of a Purple Mascot
On June 11th, the New York Mets were 28-37, close to the bottom of the NL, floating the idea of trading away Pete Alonso after a season in which Max Scherzer told the media that the team was looking to open up their window closer to 2026 or 2027; the vibes could not have been lower.
Then, Grimace, the purple derpy McDonald’s mascot that steals milkshakes and speaks using “DUH’s” and “UH’s,” threw out the ceremonial first pitch and saved their season.
PHOTO: SNY
To which Alonso credits the turnaround, the Mets went on a 12-2 stretch and led the league in runs per game, home runs, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage and are now firmly in the thick of NL Wild Card contention.
We thought it would be a retooling year for the Metropolitans, but we should never underestimate the power of Grimace.
PHOTO: MLB.com
Discover more from Wegryn Enterprises
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.