Jayden Daniels and the Curious Brilliance of Being #2

Hindsight is permanently 20-20 in sports—every time preseason predictions or analysis, draft picks, or roster moves go awry, why were we all such mindless fools who could have just signed or drafted a future Hall of Famer with every spot on the roster? 

No one is more loud about “in hindsight” sports takes than when it comes to sports drafts. For every Greg Oden taken #1, there’s a Kevin Durant taken at #2.

For every Peyton Manning, there’s a Ryan Leaf.

That can be said about any position player not taken by the team with the first overall pick, which has the entire field to themselves to pick literally anyone available.

That brings us to the story of the season so far: the SECOND overall pick, Jayden Daniels, has outplayed “consensus” #1 overall quarterback Caleb Williams on the Bears.

Both franchises have been moribund for years for various reasons, but for Chicago, it’s always been that they’ve never had the quarterback.

Daniels is 3-1 and the quarterback of a team with the most efficient offense since the 2007 Patriots. He has the highest completion percentage in a four-game span in a season since the MERGER (82.1%), and we thought their offense might never punt again since they hadn’t for two straight games. 

PHOTO: Patrick Breen/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images

It was RARE for you to be high on the Commanders- yes, Daniels was coming off a Heisman-winning season at LSU, but there were many skeptics; he’s a runner with a small frame that had one of the best offensive lines and set of weapons in college. The Commanders have seemingly been a permanent black hole of dysfunction under Dan Snyder; they hired Dan Quinn, their THIRD choice, to be the new head coach and Kliff Kingsbury as their OC after going MIA in Thailand. For the Commanders, who have been a laughing stock since RGIII mania, to finally look like a professional team and have a sense of happiness to start the year is a marvel.

The Bears, meanwhile, have been underwhelmed, anxious, and unhappy. However, you want to phrase it to start the year. Caleb Williams won the Heisman, was hailed as “the closest prospect to Patrick Mahomes” by many, and the Bears were talked up as arguably the best landing spot for the first overall pick in history with their lockdown young defensive core and adding a platter of Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and D’Andre Swift.

It’s been a month, and there’s plenty of time for improvement, but the Bears are a rocky 2-2. The fans already want new OC Shane Waldron’s head on a spike. Williams has had miscues that have sailed over Odunze’s head because of the pressure he faces from the offensive line dysfunction, and there’s no balance in the offense since Swift could not establish the run until week 4. He has quick, on-target passes, but Chicago’s offense is 30th in yards per game and averages less than 20 points per game.

You know how this game goes: we’re already asking if the Bears missed and should have drafted Jayden Daniels. They’ve played four games, but the situation is even more elevated because of the ears’ history with quarterbacks and Williams being the “sure bet” that wasn’t like the last ones we’ve seen.

It’s unfair to Williams and Daniels to judge their careers based on one month. 

There’s also the element we must talk ourselves into here: the second-overall pick factor.

Just last year, CJ Stroud, the second overall pick behind Bryce Young, had the best stats for a rookie quarterback in history, while Bryce Young has been benched despite being owner David Teppers’ guy. The year prior, both the Jaguars and the Lions needed edge rushers; the Jags selected Travon Walker, who has some time to figure it out and draws plenty of holding penalties on the pass rush, and Detroit selected Aidan Hutchinson, a Pro Bowler, member of the All-Rookie team, and possible DPOY candidate this year.

There’s something strangely unique about the second overall pick.

No, you don’t have the entirety of the field at your disposal, but if both you and the team ahead need the same position, isn’t it nice to kind of have that decision made for you? If the player selected ahead is more of a success, well, he or she wasn’t available at the time- they had no choice! But if you have the first pick, you are definitively telling the fan base and the organization that this is the guy, and there will be no other athlete that will be better than this pick going forward. There’s a pressure that comes with being that person immediately. If they pick first, they likely have infrastructural problems that can go deeper than just roster moves to save face.

The book is not written on Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels, but the #2 overall pick has to feel like house money going forward. Daniels and the Commanders are playing with nothing to lose, and there’s something special about that circumstance that Williams didn’t have as a luxury.

Start placing futures bets on Rookie of the Year for whoever is drafting second in April 2025!

PHOTO: Patrick Breen/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images