The Enigmas of the NL Central This Free Agency

Going into the 2024 season, both the AL and NL Central Divisions both had faced similar stereotypes from the grand-scale view of the baseball community:

“Well, someone has to win it, right?”

The organizations in the fly-over states were seemingly all up for grabs with how narrow the margins were, waiting to see who would be the postseason punching bag for the big bad coastal powerhouse.

On one side, the AL Central scoffed at these allegations.

They went on to have three teams make the postseason, all three AL Manager of the Year finalists, all three AL Cy Young finalists, and an MVP finalist in Bobby Witt Jr. Did it come at the benefit of being able to take advantage of playing the worst team in modern baseball history? Maybe! But the way the three teams went about their rosters and now have something to build upon was astounding.

The Royals spent money at a discounted price, filling their pitching staff with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and reliever Will Smith, and while we asked, “Why are the Royals spending money?” that was all it took to have Lugo finish top-3 in Cy Young and finish third in quality starts this year to get them ahead of schedule and into the AL Wild Card. The Guardians were thought to take a step back after Terry Francona left and Shane Bieber went down with Tommy John surgery, only for them to hire Steven Vogt, who managed a bullpen with the lowest ERA and improved one of the worst power-hitting teams in history. The Tigers sold at the deadline and went on to a magical run to the postseason after having a .2% to make the postseason on the arm of Tarik Skubal and empowering rookies to get playing time.

It doesn’t take much to have an identity and build upon something special by winning on the margins.

This brings us to the NL Central, a division with proud and historic franchises that all somehow underperformed relative to expectations and face question marks heading into free agency.

Team by team, let’s take a look at one of the most fascinating enigmas in all of baseball and how they might go about their business.

Milwaukee Brewers // 93-69, Lost NL Wild Card to Mets 2-1

PHOTO: Katie Stratman/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images

The Brewers were not a regular season disappointment by any means—they essentially led the division from end to end and were only not in first for 11 days. This was also following the trade of their ace Corbin Burnes and the loss of Craig Counsell to the division rival Cubs to promote Pat Murphy to manager. If there was ever an organization that could have taken those moves and gotten better, it was Milwaukee and how they developed their young talent.

However, it ended in a similar disappointing Brewers fashion: a quick visit that had them make a cameo in October. There was the Juan Soto liner in 2019, the Brent Suter meltdown in 2020, the Freeman homer off of Josh Hader in 2021, the crumbling of their rotation in 2023, and now miraculous hits by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. They’re facing demons.

The small market Brewers that usually find ways to work around their payroll deficit will have a tall task. They will likely lose Willy Adames, Frankie Montas, and Colin Rea, who will face free agency. Devin Williams will inevitably demand being one of the highest-paid closers in baseball and could potentially be traded. The moves they make to regroup and gain an identity to put them over the hump and build around Chourio and Contreras is a fascinating conundrum. They will have to supplement their losses and find what’s also been missing since Braun and Fielder: a power bat.

After the loss of Adames and Yelich, continuously facing injuries is crippling, finding that within their parameters as they’re soul-searching intriguing.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

The Cardinals had two veteran NL MVP finalists in 2022 in Goldschmidt and Arenado, had their “year from hell” where everything went wrong in the first year of manager Oli Marmol in 2023, and tried to fix their problems by adding the discounted old men of free agency to pair with their marquee signing of Sonny Gray. For the team to be THE baseball town only to go on to add Brandon Crawford, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, it felt uninspiring.

While we saw rookie Masyn Winn give the Red Birds fans a reason to watch, and the Sonny Gray signing looked like a net positive, it was just that: underwhelming. With Goldschmidt likely on the way out as an aging veteran and talent still clearly on the roster, the Cardinals have two massive chips as they look themselves in the mirror.

Do you keep Arenado and Sonny Gray to build around them and become spenders? For Gray to already have a 3.51 ERA in his first season, be happy in St. Louis, and already reportedly be on the block is laughable. But with Oli Marmol already looking like his seat is hot, another season of just signing the veteran old is going to be milquetoast in Red Bird Land.

Chicago Cubs (83-79)

The Cubs made the “We unloaded the wallet for the dream manager” move in the offseason to make it look like they were all-in, only to continue to cut corners as a front office; the fans will come to Wrigley no matter what, with a few names like Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson to put on a billboard.

There were some bright spots in Shota Imanaga, looking like an absolute value as a potential ace. Pete Crow-Armstrong was playing with the energy of a bat out of hell to end the season, but the competence we thought we were getting in Counsell and his managerial prowess simply wasn’t there after their first-half slump due to the bullpen was insurmountable.

Cody Bellinger opted into his deal and is a luxury in their outfield. He’s already a cult Chicago hero to the fans with their “BELLI” chants, so do they make an aggressive move to ship an outfielder and build depth where it’s needed?

The Cubs are a large-market team that operates as if its hands are tied, but it has the resources and talent to take the Central if it wants to. How aggressive that is will determine its stance in the NL as a whole.

Cincinnati Reds (77-85)

The Reds have a generational talent in Elly De La Cruz, who could be the face of baseball. They also went out and brought a Hall of Fame manager out of retirement in Terry Francona. Their youth and having a developer of men could make them an attractive free-agent destination, particularly playing at Great American Smallpark for anyone wanting to get their numbers up. 

There’s an urgency to extend the youth in their core; Tyler Stephenson may be next up, meaning they’ll have little to work with regarding spending. However, if they go about their business similarly to the Royals, spending on the margins, they could be the youthful, exciting team we thought they were.

Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

We already know what Pittsburgh is lining up to be: a team with maybe one of the best three-headed monsters in the NL, with a rotation of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones to build around. The team melted down in the second half of the year due to the front office and Nutting ownership’s annual refusal to spend to add offensive firepower, resulting in a last-place finish.

The presence of Skenes is what makes the Pirates fascinating: starting the All-Star Game, finishing as a Cy Young finalist in his rookie season, and transcending baseball viewership in his relation to Livvy Dunne makes him a SUPERSTAR. The fans will be pounding their fists on the table to build a merely competent offense around him as soon as possible. If that pressure is felt and they can add bats despite being a front office that historically no one should have faith in spending whatsoever, we could be looking at Pittsburgh much differently.

PHOTO: Katie Stratman/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images