Trouble Between the Sticks

Nottingham Forest’s rise to a European spot comprises plenty of fascinating aspects. Chris Wood’s revival steals the majority of the headlines, but Matz Sels currently leads the Premier League in clean sheets.

While impressive on paper, the underlying numbers point in an opposite direction.

As Forest continues to solidify their spot in Europe for next season, the eyes of fans fall onto the club. Sels’ excellent clean sheets record surprised many thus far, but he may be the beneficiary of a great defense.

Sels bounced back after a few terrible seasons to bring experience to an interesting Forest backline. One of the best defenses in the Prem, Sels, and his teammates built a foundation for success. While Forest still remains a threat offensively, it’s their defense that has pushed them to this level.

However, Sels’ clean sheets mask a weaker keeper who benefits from an excellent set-up. The deeper statistics hint towards the Belgian being a below-average starting keeper. Not excellent at any aspect of stopping the ball; his shortcomings have yet to truly hurt Forest.

Despite a great defensive record, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side contains deep issues.

Bailed out by a great backline, if  Forest want to make that next leap, they need to move on from Sels.

After Santo’s failure at Tottenham and the step back Forest took last season, most expected the former Champions League winners to struggle. By building one of the best defensive sides in the Prem, Forest shot up the standings. 

PHOTO: Nottingham Forest/Facebook

The backline of Murillo and Milkenović stands up against any backline besides Arsenal’s. Two relatively unknown players coming into the season, they’ve cemented themselves as stars. Especially Milkenović, who was known to Football Manager diehards before, but now he’s a top starter.

Murillo started out well last season, his first in Europe, but never truly cemented himself as the go-to starter. More of a traditional center-back, the Brazilian forms the heart of the defensive pairing. An imposing force, Murillo still struggles with his playmaking, which is the last thing holding him back.

On the other hand, Milkenović turned down potential moves to Italian giants for the former Champions League winners. The Serbian, already bubbling as one of Europe’s most underrated defenders, finally broke out on the biggest stage.

Milkenović played incredibly well for some good Fiorentina sides over the past seasons, and a big move never seemed in doubt. Even now with Forest, the towering center-back remains a threat on every set piece and to any attacker coming his way. While a larger move may be out at this age, his impact could help reinforce the likes of Arsenal and Tottenham.

This pairing, combined with some solid play from the fullbacks, creates an impressive defensive block. Additional defensive help comes from the midfield as Santo plays more defensive center mids and forces opponents out wide. It’s this block, along with great individual play, that keeps attackers totally at bay.

If Forest qualifies for a European spot, which they almost certainly will, their defense deserves credit for it.

Yes, Chris Wood’s revival continues to be great to watch, but none of this would have happened without stability in the back.

Amidst all these truly impressive improvements lies a struggling player. Selz, on paper, seems to be one of the best keepers in the Prem, but the numbers tell a different story.

At face value, Selz’s 12 clean sheets leading the league are impressive. If you use clean sheets as a top factor in deciding the Golden Glove, Selz needs to be in the conversation for it. However, his poor shot-stopping numbers hold him back from serious competition.

The largest issue stems from his poor shot-stopping ability.

Ranking well below average in the number of shots stopped, he crumbles under pressure from range. This means that even with his backline able to slow down attackers, the chance of conceding remains high with him between the sticks.

However, the statistic best used in these discussions deals with post-shot actions, essentially meaning how good a keeper is at killing chances off after a save. After parrying a shot, top keepers are able to keep track of the action and force the ball out of play. Either by pushing the ball out of play, towards a defender or into a better position to grasp the ball, top keepers read the situation. 

Sels ranks at the 31st percentile for keepers in post-shot actions, meaning that he is far below average. Again, for as good as the defense continues to play, the question marks surrounding the Belgian hurt his case for any real award. Couple these struggles with killing off opportunities with his poor shot-stopping record, and you get a below-average starter on a good team.

In the goalkeeper molds, Sels profiles as a good first-start keeper.

This means that he is the keeper brought in to help bring experience, but the moment you have higher desires, he needs to be moved.

For a club in Forest’s position and standing, Sels helps bring a sort of competency to the side. However, ask him to do more and the cracks start appearing, thus far this hasn’t killed Nottingham.

In time, especially in European competition, these issues will be exploited.

PHOTO: Nottingham Forest/Facebook