Playing the Numbers Game

As the clock ticked down against PSG, Arsenal desperately needed another chance to equalize on Tuesday. Without a real threat to their opponent’s backline, the Gunners hung their hopes on a set-piece goal.

Having become synonymous with scoring via this method, Arteta’s tactics bring the spotlight back to this strategy.

So far this season, only Crystal Palace has scored more goals via set pieces than Arsenal. Over the past few seasons, the Gunners have made this area their expertise.

Statistically speaking, the best way to score is through any sort of set piece. Of course, penalties present themselves as the easiest opportunity to convert, but corners and free kicks can also raise scoring chances. Teams employ set-piece coaches, but Arsenal’s Nicolas Jover seems to be leagues above his rivals.

For Arsenal, the reliance on set pieces comes down to both the desire to exploit backlines and the need to find a way to get goals. Utilizing their relatively large squad, Arteta’s men orchestrate elaborate set pieces to open up just enough space to latch onto a ball. Especially without a real, consistent striker, this method allows Arsenal to squeak by.

Over the next week, Arsenal need to understand how to break down this PSG backline, whether it be through set pieces or not.

The method that continues to bring the Gunners success may require tinkering if they want to reach Istanbul.

Currently sitting with 14 set-piece goals, only Palace beat them. While other teams began to prioritize set pieces this season, Arsenal remained the benchmark.

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Outside of Crystal Palace, the other teams whose set-piece goals make up a decent proportion of their goals scored are European spot contenders. Forest, Newcastle, and Villa all have seen a further focus on this scoring method. After all, as the sport adopts statistical analysis more and more, routes like set pieces are more attractive.

A good comparison to this trend lies in the NBA, where starting in the 2010s, teams made it a priority to get to the free-throw line more. Shooting from the line, three-point line, or driving it in for a layup was the most efficient way to score. Of course, the free-throw line idea is not anything new, but its mass exploitation is a result of this analytical drive.

Set pieces mirror free throws somewhat well, as both offer a more straightforward path to scoring. However, football, outside of penalties, still requires more finesse.

Arsenal’s disallowed goal against PSG on Tuesday demonstrates this quite well. To get free and confuse the Parisian defense, Arsenal tried to stagger their movement to force PSG to drop their line deeper. This ultimately failed for Arteta and Jover, but it shows the creativity that Jover has brought to this team.

Rather than being a pure lob into the box hoping someone puts a body to it, Jover sets his team up uniquely to force opponents out of position. The movement to open up space for his players becomes just as important as the presence of the players. While other clubs try to imitate Jover’s success, the coach remains the best because of the plays he continues to draw up.

Yes, it’s statistically easier to score from a set piece, but it still demands planning.

With better defensive schemes existing, set-piece coaches need to get more creative with their plans, and Jover continues to do that.

To no one’s surprise, the lack of a threatening number nine limited Arsenal’s ceiling. Without a consistent scorer capable of matching Haaland or Salah, the Gunners’ title run fell flat.

Even with that caveat, Arteta set the squad up well to compensate for that issue. Theoretically, they do employ a few players who can put in a shift up top. However, injuries and inconsistencies ravaged this front line. 

Playing most of the season without Jesus and Havertz, the Spaniard found creative ways to survive. Perhaps the best solution came via playing Mikel Merino up top, given his stature and the team’s play. Having a taller threat to lob passes replicates the gains made up by set pieces.  

Desperation often breeds creativity, which has certainly been the case for Arteta. However, going into next season, they need to evolve further.

As the PSG game proved, this team relies far too heavily on structured play. Giving up possession failed to produce any sort of results on the counter. Without an actual striker, no one could pick out a runner, and every attack died down.

Luis Enrique understood that, giving Arsenal the chance to attack on the counter, knowing the only threat came from plays. PSG doesn’t even play a particularly good backline, but Arsenal lacked the personnel to make them pay. Unfortunately for the Gunners, without some tinkering, it looks like their passage to the final will come down to chances produced from Jover’s plays.

The final form of this team, resulting in them actually winning the league, needs to feature a more prominent attack.

Being experts on the set piece is fine, but that can’t be the only real threat.

Since their return to title contention, Arsenal have continued to play an intriguing style of football. Uber defensive with every attack, almost meticulously planned.

When it works, they can hang with anyone, but when it flops, Arsenal become toothless.

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