MLB Second Half Crystal Ball Candidates

At the halfway point of the season last year, the Detroit Tigers were 15 games out of first place in the division and had 7 teams in front of them in the American League Wild Card Standings.

They had less than a 1% chance of making the postseason and sold their assets at the deadline.

Then magic happened. Tarik Skubal turned into the eventual Cy Young winner and the best pitcher in the American League. They went 34-19 from August to September and eliminated the Astros in the postseason, who had a villainous stranglehold on the American League for nearly a decade. We all had declared them dead, and the rest is Gritty Tigs’ history, which carried over to them having the best American League record to this point in the season, too.

That’s not to say there weren’t things working in their favor- the youngest team in the MLB had nothing to lose and played division opponents they had familiarity with and only 3 series with other opponents that made the postseason, but with the expanded playoff now and how unpredictably romantic baseball is, all you have to do is get in.

That leads us to the dilemma we now face: with the trade deadline approaching, we now have Detroit Stress Disorder, where we don’t want to be Old Takes Exposed and declare a team dead before they TRULY are dead and lifeless, and front offices will likely feel the same way.

Looking at some of the elements that went the way of the Motor City Kitties last year, let’s take a look at some possible candidates that still feel like they have a chance. We’ll pull out a crystal ball and schedule watch so that the 162-game season, where the games matter just as much in August as they do in July, is accounted for. 

It may not be the most abundant, but the most valuable currency in baseball is hope.

Kansas City Royals

This year has been less than what we banked on for a Royals team that made the postseason last year and competed well with the eventual AL Champion Yankees. They’re below .500, fourth place in the AL Central, where everyone feels miles away from Detroit, and have less than a 12% chance to make the postseason with 8 teams ahead of them that they’ll be competing with. Bobby Witt Jr. almost put up 10 WAR last season, and it turns out that when he’s less than historic and the rest of the lineup is putting up a bottom-five OPS, it frankly doesn’t matter how great of a pitcher Kris Bubic is if you only have four players capable of driving in runs.

However, with a very winnable and muddy division, just like last year, the Royals may be more aggressive and capable of competing than their competitors, which shapes their mindset.

There is a very rare and real window that the Kansas City Royals are currently operating in that you often see in the NBA, a league that is much more centered around their individual talent: they got their superstar and made him the face and leader of the team from the get-go. Bobby Witt Jr. was looked at as the five-tool player, was the five-tool player before even turning 23, and they gave him the decade-long deal because they want to operate and win around building around him for good. For all accounts, it looks like the right decision, and the Royals now have a vision where they can make moves around him, knowing that he is always going to give them a chance to compete.

The Royals’ front office last year did that in Witt’s historic MVP runner-up season, operated well on the margins in their free agent signings, and had a team that believed in their superstar. There’s potential that Cole Ragans will come back from his injury in July, Jac Caglianone was called up at just 22, so clearly there’s still the desire to win throughout his development, and they’ll end the season with plenty of division games to go along with the A’s, Pirates, Nationals, and Marlins.

And what happens if Witt Jr. goes supernova again?

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers? The team that won the World Series two years ago? They’ve been maybe the most underwhelming offenses for something we expected so much out of following free agency; it was a team where 1-9 could take you deep, and the actual real concern was a bullpen of names you hadn’t heard of and a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle that was aging and made of glass.

PHOTO: Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images

The opposite has been the case thus far! Joc Pederson was the worst-qualified hitter, Jake Burger had to be sent down and called up, and Marcus Semien and Corey Seager have never been able to get into a groove due to their age since they invested in them as aging infield superstars years ago. The Rangers have the third-worst offense despite allowing the fewest runs in the majors.

This is a team with an offensive ceiling so high that if they got any consistent production at all, Mahle and Eovaldi will be transitioning back from injuries, they have talent in their farm system either being available as trade chips for a bat or possible promotion, and a front office operating as if this could be the last year of the every day Semien/Seager combo to compete. The strength of the team, from what we expected, is what’s underperforming, and the script could easily flip in the second half.

Atlanta Braves

The narrative all year has been that the Braves, despite their 1-8 start to the year, are simply too talented on paper to fail and will figure it out.

And they still haven’t figured it out.

They’re 7 games below .500, Chris Sale and Spencer Strider are aces but have both never been healthy at the same time, and Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies are maybe the two worst every day offensive players who we expected superstar stuff from; it all felt cursed after Jurickson Profar got suspended for PEDs after being the marquee free agent signing.

…And still, WHAT IF? What if Michael Harris II gets a SINGLE walk (something he didn’t do once last month) and Ozzie goes back to being the clubhouse leader and making solid contact? 

The last time the Braves’ outlook was this low this early was the year when Alex Anthopolous operated from a sense of desperation and they won the World Series with a margin of victory. He gets a LOT of leeway and grace for that run, but what was different about that run was that now this Braves team will have Ronald Acuna Jr. on it.

They still have been the franchise that has operated in a way that you trust in their additions thus far; the rotation will need to find someone to replace the black holes that aren’t Schwellenbach and Strider, and they’ll still be getting 15 more games against the Marlins and Nationals in the division. They’re the team you unfortunately won’t quit until it’s REALLY over.

Cincinnati Reds

It’s no longer a hot take anymore.

We’ve been waiting to take the Reds seriously for the past several years because all we want more than anything in the world is for Elly De La Cruz, one of the most must-see athletes in sports, to be playing in games that matter. Cincinnati has never been swept, but it has never been able to gain enough momentum in the NL Central, which features the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals all looking like competent and competitive organizations ahead of them. It’s also odd that they play in Great American Small Park, where seemingly every game features a 3-homer game from someone you’ve never heard of. Still, the strength of Cincy so far has been the rotation of flamethrower Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo. 

They’re also the team that NEEDS to believe in their prospects in order to win- Cincinnati just DFA’d Jameir Canedelairo and has had historically bad luck in the signings they have and haven’t made, so they’ve had to rely upon the success of their call-ups and hope to get that now out of Chase Burns and eventually Rhett Lowder because we haven’t been able to trust them to use their resources right.

They’ve got the superstar in Elly, the veteran experience and player-based manager that has championship pedigree, and youthful charisma, where they play with nothing to lose.

Sounds a little bit like the Detroit formula from last year?

The Reds just swept the Padres and aren’t in nearly as big of a hole as 2024 Detroit at just 2.5 games behind in the Wild Card, but are in a more loaded National League. With the 6th-hardest schedule remaining, we’ll be getting Elly in games that are as big as it gets.

PHOTO: Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images