Alec Pierce: Overpaid or Underrated?

One of the biggest stories in free agency has been wide receiver Alec Pierce re-signing with the Colts on a 4-year, $116 million contract, making him the highest-paid free agent WR in NFL history.

Was Alec Pierce overpaid, or is this just the beginning for the young deep threat?

On Monday, March 9th, news broke that Alec Pierce was re-signing with the Indianapolis Colts on a record-breaking contract. The news came as somewhat of a surprise, both given that Pierce has yet to surpass 50 receptions in a season and the Colts weren’t exactly in cap paradise, even less so now after giving quarterback Daniel Jones a massive new contract.

The 25-year-old Pierce has only just recorded his first 1000-yard season and, in his four years in the league, has yet to hold down the position of being the top receiver on a team (despite Pierce leading the Colts in receiving yards in back-to-back years, Michael Pittman outnumbered him in both targets and receptions).

So, what makes Pierce worthy of this contract? Well, for one, maybe we shouldn’t be thinking about it so much right now.

We all know that the cap increases tremendously every year, allowing new players to become the highest-paid at their positions.

Take Christian Kirk’s 2022 contract with the Jaguars, for example. Kirk was given one of the highest receiver contracts in NFL history at the time, despite being a slot receiver without a 1000-yard season to his name at the time. Kirk’s contract reset the market price for receivers and now, in retrospect, appears relatively tame — even if his success on the Jaguars was short-lived.

The same will happen with Pierce. Four years from now, we will not be looking at Pierce as one of the richest players in the league. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t be critical of his salary. If Pierce fails to live up to his contract by underperforming or succumbing to injuries, it will go down as a bad signing.

Take Kenny Golladay’s 2021 contract with the Giants, for example. Golladay made a similarly hefty bag in free agency after years of promise with the Lions. But with the Giants, Golladay struggled, failing to live up to his contract and being released after only two years.

Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

As for Pierce, all we can do now is hypothesize. I’m projecting that, in a couple of years, Pierce’s contract will be looked at as a slight overpay. Pierce is a good player, and he should continue to be, but I highly doubt Pierce will ever be great. Great players typically possess a level of consistency we have yet to see from Pierce on a game-to-game basis. Plus, Pierce has already logged four full seasons in the league, which is typically the maximum amount of time it takes for receivers to fully break out.

And it’s not like the opportunities for Pierce haven’t been there under Jim Bob Cooter. Pierce has averaged an over 80% snap count in each of the last three seasons (averaging as much as 95% in 2023). There’s a very real possibility that Pierce has already hit his ceiling. And as far as an increased role goes, he’ll still have to battle with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs for targets on a run-heavy offense.

But, to be clear, I don’t think he’ll be a bust. If healthy, there’s no reason to believe that Pierce won’t replicate or even improve upon his numbers in the future.

Pierce is a talented player who will be only 26 years old at the start of the new season.

It’s just hard to justify paying someone like Pierce almost 30 million a year when your team has been stuck in mediocrity for the better part of the last decade.