A Strange Trend

When Chelsea brought in Liam Delap right before the Club World Cup, the reaction ranged from confusion to concern. While Delap showed promise with Ipswich, his ceiling always seemed capped at a mid-table striker.

His struggles are nothing new; they demand an examination of why teams continue to go after these types of strikers. 

Since the end of Diego Costa’s prime, Chelsea has spent almost a decade looking for his replacement. Having brought in a mix of players who proved themselves in different European leagues, the more interesting archetype chosen by the Blues was those who showed one good season on a lower-level team.

Many teams find themselves victims of this sort of psychosis. Trusting youngish players who break out either in the Championship or with a lower table side. In almost every case with top Prem clubs, struggles ensue almost right away, as the pressure ramps up.

Unless a player promises to be among the top-tier striker prospects, this position requires patience. Strikers ultimately need to find a grove unlike almost in another position. Perhaps no other spot on the pitch is so dependent on others, meaning that it’s also a position that yields inconsistent performances. 

Delap’s struggles, while worrying for Chelsea, are nothing new.

Rather, he joins a long list of similar types of players who failed to find a spot in the Premier League’s elite.

Every top six club, at one point or another, seemed to put their faith in a midtable striker to lead them into the future. Andy Carroll, Armando Broja, and even Danny Ings spring to mind in terms of players like this.

To many scouts and directors of football, proving oneself in the Championship or Prem bodes well for sustained success in the Prem. Having been the model both across Europe and in the Prem, finding form in a domestic league promises an easier transition. Some positions find this easy, but not strikers.

Looking at some of the Prem’s best targetmen, not many of them arrived at their club via the Prem. Besides outliers like Isak or Richarlison, most of the league’s best strikers arrive from across the continent. Even mid-table sides like Brentford prefer to go with players who have shown promise in foreign leagues.

However, clubs seem to prefer strikers in their early 20s who have shown a year of success in the Prem as backups. Even when Chelsea picked up Delap, he originally meant to serve as a rotation player behind Jackson.

It remains tricky to judge the Brojas and Delaps of the world, given the jump that they have to make with so little evidence. This mold of player succeeds in a role where teams build their offenses around them. Using Broja and Delpa as examples, both forwards had offenses built around them.

Again, it’s much easier to score when everything is curtailed around you, being put into the position to receive the ball at every opportunity. When the game gets more complex, and players are asked to fit into complex sides, a dip is to be expected.

Finding the proper striker makes or breaks sides.

The correct choice allows contenders for European spots to challenge for the title, or sinks them back to a lower-tier top-ten side.

Every position has its own unique development. Keepers may reach their prime late in their 20s, while top-class midfielders show their worth early on.

Different metrics exist for every position, allowing scouts and fans to judge them, but for strikers, goals matter most. No matter the peripheral numbers some forwards put up, it all returns to how often they put the ball into the back of the net. Any sort of inconsistent performance derails a career; one need only look at Darwin Núñez.

Strikers mature at different rates and in different ways. Take, for example, Olivier Giroud, who continues to play to this day. The Frenchman only became a Ligue 1 player at 24 before hitting his peak in his early 30s.

Another good example of this phenomenon is Chris Wood, who, like Giroud, truly arrived in the Prem well into his prime. A prolific scorer within the bottom half of the table tier, the one time a club pushing for Europe invested heavily into him, things fell apart. Upon returning to his level, the old Chris Wood appeared.

Getting more data on strikers, like any other player, helps clubs avoid buying into the hype too early. While the price tag may surely rise, at least you’re not committing yourself to a bad project.

There exists a sense of caution with these types of moves, where clubs see these as low-risk, high-reward transfers in comparison to continental ones. Bringing in a player from a whole different league requires a learning curve that only the truly elite don’t need. The fear that comes from the inconsistency baked into the position makes teams prefer more sure options. 

Trends in football change constantly, necessitating that clubs continually reinvent their transfer policies.

Despite innovations in strategy, clubs return to betting on strikers who seem like flashes in the pan, with diminishing returns.

Igor Thiago screams as the next player to fall into this trap, given how well the Brazilian has played at Brentford. With Chelsea being burned by this phenomenon so many times, they feel like the prime suspect for a Thiago transfer.

Despite all the promise he shows weekly, clubs should be wary of overleveraging themselves for strikers in this mold.