Two Emerging Markets: Why Today’s Premier League Transfer Market is Broken

Earlier this week, both Chelsea and Manchester City confirmed their transfer window-breaking moves. The two sides, at different stages in their current restructurings, paid fees that rival some of the largest ever for talented players who still feel unworthy of those price tags.

While many, correctly, decry these exorbitant payments, the supposed death of the transfer market seems far away.

The signings of Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers shocked the footballing world. While both possess great talent, neither proved themselves worthy of these earth-shattering transfer fees.

Both Englishmen now find themselves amongst the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba in terms of largest transfer fees paid. By the teams that PSG and Manchester United moved for Mbappe and Pogba respectively, the two Frenchmen showed the World that they were two of the best players alive. Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest took advantage of something else: the fact that only Premier League clubs can pay that amount.

As shocking as the fees are, other transfers this summer continue to show that Prem hasn’t totally ruined the market. Moves within the Prem may forever be changed, but not abroad. A pair of Barça moves breathed life into the summer window that many failed to see coming.

When announced, the idea of the Super League was to essentially prevent the Prem from stealing Europe’s talent with its financial hegemony.

Rather than entering an era where the English league sees no competitor on the pitch, the fundamentals of the market don’t feel changed.

Earlier massive moves, such as Neymar or Pogba, felt natural. After all, transfers of that size came when players were entering their prime and had already proven themselves at the top level.

Now, out of a fear of missing out on the next big player, clubs are content with breaking the bank to bring in key players. Using the Kevin de Bruyne transfer saga is a great example of how transfers have evolved since the 2010s.

Entering the summer of 2015, the Belgian finished off one of the most impressive playmaking seasons in modern football history. 21 assists on a decent Wolfsburg side made the midfielder the most sought-after talent on the market, alongside Pogba, that is. Entering his prime, having already shown his talent, any club could have a ready-made star for the right price.

Eventually, City doled out about 75 million Euros to secure his talents and give themselves the missing piece to kickstart their dynasty. Today, a player like de Bruyne would be almost impossible to bring in for anything less than 200 million. While City and other Prem clubs could muster up those funds, it’s easier to bet on these players at a younger age.

What both Chelsea and Manchester City hope is that these players eventually return more value than they did when they hit their primes. With the correct infrastructure, both teams hope that the fees doled out, while extreme, will be worth it. If the move ultimately fails, better it fail now than after spending even more money on the player.

For the selling clubs, these moves are essentially too good to turn down, just as it was for Wolfsburg in 2015. It’s very unlikely that they ever see money like this walk back through the doors. More importantly, the money received allows them to rebuild in a manner that they see fit.

Premier League clubs possess the ability to gamble on players in this manner because of their league’s financial domination.

Any other club, barring Europe’s other elites, would never be able to see through the results of an effort like this.

As these two moves began to materialize, Barça pulled off two moves to secure more depth and help on the front line. The two players moving to Catalonia present themselves as much more surefire bets without needing to pay Prem prices.

For as strange as the Anthony Gordon move feels, any of the Prem’s top six could have offered more than the Catalans. For under 100 million Euros, Barça found a helpful and proven player for a side looking to return to European contention. Only a year older than Rogers, Gordon plays the same position and has shown more at the highest level.

When choosing between Gordon and Rogers, the only real difference comes down to the price tag. Both clearly can impact a team’s chances at winning trophies, but Gordon costs a fraction of the price.

Karim Adeyemi is another winger who spent the past few seasons showing that he can contribute to a team in the top tier of Europe. While always remaining in that second tier of stardom in the Bundesliga, it always felt crazy that he never received the proper attention. Over ten goals plus assists in each of his past two seasons, Adeyemi promises to be a quality depth player.

The elephant in the room comes down to the prestige of playing for a club like Barcelona or Bayern Munich; however, this still proves that the core principle of the Super League is dead. Despite the Prem continuing its financial hegemony, this led to a cannibalization of its own league. Essentially turning it into a Bundesliga or Ligue 1 with six teams instead of one gobbling up the league’s talents.

Occasionally, Serie A giants complain about the gap between themselves and the Prem; however, they do benefit from Prem failures. Take Scott McTominay, who became a Ballon d’Or candidate upon his move to Napoli. Good scouting will beat out financial prowess to a certain point; one only needs to look at Juventus stealing Kenan Yıldız to see this.

Fears over the continued growing gap between the Prem and the rest of Europe are real and need to be addressed. However, the fears that this would result in 100 years of English dominance of the game clearly never materialized. 

Paying that much for players like Anderson and Rogers feels like a bit of a fever dream that football has been stuck in for a while. These bets, while massive in price, never impact the elite of the Prem.

For as damaging as they promise to be, the rest of Europe is yet to feel the impact of the cash thrown around by these clubs.