Why We Believe and Don’t Believe in the American League Teams

The American League playoff picture has been an absolute nightmare to evaluate this season.

Other than the Rays, who have a better record than the Dodgers, it’s been a cycle of teams that are several games within .500 that have had highs and lows that make you believe and then not believe each week. It’s going to come down to who can be not-the-worst the most, in all likelihood. It’s going to create chaos in the most magnificent way possible.

We’re going to look at the playoff teams and those just outside the wild card and evaluate both sides of the coin through the rest of the season leading up to October. Why do we believe in your team? Why should each team in the American League hope that you don’t get into the dance?

In addition to that, there’s the other side of the coin with how awful some of the teams in the AL have been at their weakest and most vulnerable. Why should we NOT believe in you in October?

If you’re a fan of one of these AL teams, you can decide which person on the shoulder you want to.

Boston Red Sox // THEY ARE PLAYING WITH NOTHING TO LOSE

The Red Sox had cleaned house and were on pace to have the worst record at Fenway Park in franchise history, and the franchise has been around for a little while. It wasn’t just that they were losing; every front-office move looked like a net loss, Craig Breslow made comical comments that made it seem like an embarrassing franchise, and there was no light at the end of the tunnel with Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony both MIA. The city of victors was getting clowned upon.

They went on a 31-5 run in the second half, went from sellers to buyers at the deadline, and look like an entirely new team with nothing to lose. They’re playing by playing small ball and running the bases aggressively under Chad Tracy, Willson Contreras has become a cult icon in Boston, Caleb Durbin has turned the season around, and the starting rotation carried by the emergence of rookies Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle has made the team that was a laughing stock a group that took playing with house money all the way to trying to win the AL East. Because they’ve been at the bottom, they’ve experienced playing with nothing to lose going forward, and that’s dangerous.

DID YOU SEE THEM WHEN THINGS GOT THAT BAD ON AND OFF THE FIELD?

That doesn’t mean that they’re not fully capable of embarrassing themselves like they were at the beginning, given that Boston is a pressure-cooker of drama.

Tampa Bay Rays // THEY ARE THE SMARTEST PERSON IN THE ROOM

The Rays have had to operate this way given their financial constraints for years, and Kevin Cash, the longest-tenured AL Manager, is no stranger to it. They platoon the pitching staff as efficiently as anyone, top 5 in both wins and the most saves in baseball, and they went out and were buyers at the deadline to get maybe their best offensive catcher in years in Liam Hicks. This time, they’re aware that they’ve got the chance to strike with Junior Caminero elevating to superstar status and put the finishing touches on the roster.

LACK OF INTIMIDATION

Despite having the best record in the AL end-to-end, there’s not a lot of fear factor that makes them feel beatable. The “ace” on the roster, McClanahan, just went down to the IL; they’re 24th in homers, and the Trop isn’t exactly hostile territory.

New York Yankees // WHAT IF THEY GET THOSE GIANTS BACK?

The Yankees have already had a rotation as good as anyone in the AL with Schlittler, Cole, and Fried as a three-headed October monster leading the majors in ERA. Still, we haven’t even seen the Yankees firing on all cylinders from an offensive standpoint with Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger all on the shelf. Their return could be as terrifying as ever if they peak and get right when it matters most.

THEIR HEALTH IS DESCRIBED LIKE OLD MEN AT A RETIREMENT HOME

Reports surrounding these muscular giants are that they’re “outside” or “playing catch” and “moving.” Those aren’t exactly encouraging signs that they’re going to actually come back and play meaningful baseball if that’s what they’re banking on!

Chicago White Sox // THEY’RE YOUNG, DUMB, AND HUNGRY

The White Sox have been arguably the surprise of the season so far, given their recent history of embarrassment, tanking, and doing nothing but posting highlights of their concessions because they couldn’t promote anything else. They went from World Series contention in 2020 to trading away that core for this youth, and it’s arrived! Everyone but Benintendi is 26 and under, doesn’t know what they don’t know yet, and they’ve got a first-year manager trying to make a name for himself. That means they’re trying to contend every night. They’ve hit a bit of a skid with Davis Martin recently finding out he was tipping pitches, but now with Murakami back, Braden Montgomery called up, and acquiring Luis Castillo at the deadline, they’ve got some reinforcements to go for the Central title, truly.

THEY RELY ON THE LONG BALL

This team is homer-dependent for scoring, and that’s where the youth and hitting for average is going to be seen as a weakness. They’re bottom 10 in average and total hits, but are in the top 10 in homers. Essentially, if you play in a ballpark as pitcher-friendly as somewhere like Texas or Seattle, it’s going to be hard for them to hit it out and put up the offense they rely upon to win.

Houston Astros // YORDAN ALVAREZ IS THE MOST-FEARED HITTER IN BASEBALL

There is something about this mountain of a man that comes to the plate that makes you have to shift your entire game plan around him. He’s a behemoth who has carried the Astros back into the postseason and swings the bat like it’s a toothpick, and based on the sound that it makes when it goes into the stands, it’s like it sucks the soul out of the pitcher simultaneously. However, it’s not just the long ball- Yordan’s overall hitting has been so next level that no one even cares that he’s not playing in the field as the AL MVP favorite, slashing .307/.404/.591. In a game that is one of the most team-dependent, he has an NBA-level “put the team on his back” impact.

THE STARTING PITCHING IS TEE BALL LEVEL

And they didn’t do anything to address it at the deadline except give away Spencer Arighetti. Their ERA is almost at 5, they give up the second-most free passes, and no one has any idea what Tatsuya Imai is at this point with his roller coaster of a season in his transition to the majors. They are essentially NOx for your offense.

Detroit Tigers // REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME THE TIGERS SOLD?

That’s right- in 2024, the Tigers sold off Jack Flaherty, Carson Kelly, Mark Canha, and Andrew Chafin at the deadline for prospects to plan for the future. What happened next was that they won 31 of 42 games when they had a 0.2% chance of making the postseason, then dethroned the Astros in the postseason. Do you think this team is going to go down lightly after trading away Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize? That could be exactly what they needed to rally the troops after calling up Max Clark. Not only have they gone 5-2 since the Skubal trade, but they’ve also had 3 shutouts from their pitching staff, and the offense has put up 5 or more runs in 6 of those games. The Motor City kitties love being counted out.

THE HIGH LEVERAGE MELTDOWNS

When the Tigers lose games, it almost feels like it is TWICE a loss because of how brutal it’s been. They have 4 different relievers in the top 20 in blown saves alone as a single team. AJ Hinch has been criticized for over-managing and platooning far too many relievers and pinch-hitters instead of letting the boys play, which will be necessary now that the team is built on the shoulders of the young guns. If there are back-breaking losses coming down to the wire at the end of the season or in the playoffs, it’s hard to bounce back from in a series.

Cleveland Guardians // THE NEXT WAVE IS HERE

The Guardians have had an unreal amount of consistency going back to their 2016 World Series appearance and have made the postseason 6 out of the last 9 times despite having the roster constraints that they do; Jose Ramirez and Austin Hedges might be the only Guardians for life at this point with the amount of moves they make and the lack of extensions they give out to just develop through the youth given their constraints.

This might be the youngest and most-talented roster the Guardians have had since that 2016 World Series team. In addition to Jose as the franchise guy, the call-ups of DeLauter, Bazzanna, Messick, and now Angel Genao have proven that they’re not afraid to embrace the next era of Cleveland baseball. They paired those guys with a roster of veterans at the deadline to balance the youth, and now the Guardians have a level of known quantities we haven’t seen in October before.

UNLESS THEY SHOW UP, THAT LINEUP IS VERY THIN

Jo Adell was a defensive specialist in Anaheim. He immediately became the Guardians’ home run leader when they acquired him at the deadline. They’re last in slugging, and we’ve seen success without it, as the Brewers and Diamondbacks also hit the fewest homers, but this has been a tale as old as time in Cleveland. To their credit, they’ve played better than anywhere else they’ve been upon putting on the Guardians uniform, but Nathaniel Lowe and Patrick Bailey are batting 4th and 8th in this lineup; Lowe has been on 5 teams in 5 seasons, and Patrick Bailey drove Giants fans insane when he was holding a bat in his hands for years. There’s a lot of vulnerability at the plate if they’re not doing what Cleveland has always done in maxing out their production.

Texas Rangers // EOVALDI AND DEGROM IN OCTOBER IS NOT GOING TO ALLOW YOU TO GET ON BASE

These guys just don’t give up walks; they strike you out, and they’re built for October. The teams in the AL that rely upon small ball and getting on base are not going to be able to extend games in the oversized Lowe’s in Arlington, which is a pitching factory. We haven’t gotten the chance to see maybe one of the best pitchers of this generation in high-leverage games enough due to deGrom’s injuries and playing on teams that couldn’t give him run support, but when all is right, deGrom is unstoppable, and those two arms will get to throw it to the bullpen led by Jacob Latz that is top-10 in saves.

THEY ARE THE EPITOME OF AVERAGE OFFENSIVELY

All season, the Rangers have been within 2 games of a .500 record 16 times! It is as average as it gets. If you look up any offensive stat possible other than plate appearances, there is a guarantee that it is going to range between 10th and 20th in the league. There’s never been a moment where all cylinders have been clicking aside from a Joc Pederson home run barrage due to the inconsistent health of Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, the guys that are supposed to be the faces of the lineup.

Minnesota Twins // THEY JUST IMPROVED THEIR MAIN WEAKNESS AT THE DEADLINE

Remember last season when the Twins sold off over 10 of their active players at the deadline in Cleveland, and it was really sad, and we thought the era of winning in Minnesota was over for a while? Well, they’ve overperformed so much that the preseason talks of selling Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton turned into the 2nd-best offense in the AL, turning them into buyers at the deadline! They looked in the mirror, saw that they had a potent offense with the 30th-ranked bullpen, and added Jeff Hoffman and AJ Minter. They didn’t overthink long-term futures; they saw the Central as winnable after winning 10 of 14 to end the first half, and they shopped for need. They’re keeping the formula going: Kody Clemens hitting over 20 homers and Royce Lewis readjusting after previously being sent down, and when Byron Buxton gets back, they’re going to continue to stay in it!

THE MINNESOTA SPORTS CURSE

Need I say more?